2015 - Round 20 Results: ChiPS Tips Nine

It's no longer news when the Funds finish a round down by a little, so I'll not spend much time relaying the details of that outcome yet again this weekend. In brief, the Head-to-Head Fund lost its sole, tiny wager on Essendon, and the Line Fund lost two of its three wagers, dropping the Head-to-Head Fund by 0.2c, the Line Fund by 2.8c, and the Overall Portfolio by 1.7c. It's now down by just under 33c on the season.


Much happier news on the Head-to-Head tipping front, with six favorites and one equal-favourite prevailing, resulting in an all-Tipster average of 6.7 from 9, the 5th-highest of the season. C_Marg had another impressive round this week, tipping all 9 winners to move it into a joint share of the lead with Combo_7 on 123.5 from 170 (73%).

The worst score for the round was 3 from 9, a result achieved by four of the Heuristic Tipsters, Ride Your Luck, Short Term Memory I, Shadow and Follow The Streak.

Margin prediction was made far more difficult by the large margins in four of the games, Adelaide winning by 112 points, the Lions by 64 points, the Tigers by 83 points, and the Dogs by 98 points.

Those results helped blow the all-Predictor average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) out to 37.9 points per game, the 4th-highest average for the season. Best was Bookie_3's 34.6 points per game, ahead of C_Marg's and Combo_NN2's 35.3 points per game.

C_Marg's equal-second placed finish was enough to see it retain its lead on the MoS Leaderboard where it now heads ENS_Greedy by almost 20 goals. There was little movement on the Leaderboard elsewhere either, though Combo_7, MoS' Official Margin Predictor, did climb three places into 5th.

C_Marg, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2 remain the only Predictors with season-long profitable records on line betting, with many other Predictors hovering around the might-as-well-be-guessing 50% mark.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors it was C_Prob, narrowly, having the week's best round, its performance so good that it catapulted it into outright leadership on the MoS Leaderboard. We now then have the situation that a MoS Predictor that uses no bookmaker data at all has proven itself better calibrated than the TAB Bookmaker himself.

All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors did well this week, however, so much so that they, collectively, recorded the season's best all-Predictor average probability score.

And, in a supreme touch of irony, the Line Fund algorithm recorded yet another positive probability score for the round - for all the good that did Investors.