2015 - Round 23 Results: ChiPS Still Leads The Lot

One bet, one win: 100% record. How much nicer would the wagering season have seemed had I been able to say that just a little more often.

Anyway, the Line Fund's sole collect added 2.3c to its value, which now stands at 70.9c, and also added 1.4c to the value of the Overall Portfolio, which stands (well teeters really) at 67.3c.


Only five of the weekend's nine favourites won, leaving the all-Tipster average for the Head-to-Head Tipsters at just 4.5 from 9, the lowest it's been since Round 12, and the fifth lowest it's been all season.

Home Sweet Home did best, missing out on a clean sweep only because of the Dons' late goal against the Pies in the final game of the round. C_Marg did next best with a 6 from 9 haul, that allowing it to open up a two tip gap at the head of the Leaderboard. With just nine games to go a lead that size will be hard to run down.

MoS' Margin Predictors fared a little better, their all-Predictor average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 32.0 points per game per Predictor the lowest they've recorded since Round 19. The round's low MAE of 24.9 points per game belonged to Combo_7, which climbed two places into 5th as a result, the highest ranking it's held since Round 15.

C_Marg, despite returning a relatively poor MAE of 30.5 points per game for the round still did enough to hold down 1st place, though its lead over ENS_Greedy, a first-year Predictor, has been slimmed to just over 100 points.

H2H_Adj_7 and H2H_Unadj_3, despite returning relatively poor MAEs for the round, this week joined C_Marg, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2 as the only Predictors with profitable, season-long line betting performances. Yet more evidence that successful line wagering doesn't require the ability to predict margins accurately. 

Probability prediction proved far easier for some of MoS' Head-to-Head Probability Predictors than for others this week, C_Prob and the three Bookie Predictors all recording positive probability scores while WinPred, ProPred and the H2H Predictors all recorded negative scores. The all-Predictor average finished fractionally below zero, the first time it's done that since Round 12, and only the 5th time it's done so all season.

C_Prob registered the round's best probability score and, in so doing, extended its lead on the MoS Leaderboard over MoS' Official Head-to-Head Probability Predictor, Bookie-OE. It would need to attach some erroneous very low or very high probabilities over the remaining nine games to surrender its lead. That feels entirely possible with C_Prob though.

Finally, the Line Fund algorithm, consistent with its generally improved calibration in recent weeks, turned in a strongly positive probability score, its fourth in the last five weeks, and its best score since Round 6.