2015 - Round 21 Results: ChiPS Still Leads

There's nothing to see here. Move along. The Line Fund loses its lone bet while the Head-to-Head Fund lands its only attempt but makes insufficient return to cover the Line Fund's loss resulting in the Overall Portfolio lobbing another coin into the toll basket that has been MoS' TAB wagering this season. We've seen it all before.

The Head-to-Head Fund is now trading at 62c, the Line Fund at 69c, and the Overall Portfolio at 66c and we are but wagering for draft picks ...


This week's draw between the Cats and the Saints effectively prevented any of the Head-to-Head Tipsters from tipping all nine, and losses by Hawthorn, Fremantle and Melbourne, all favourites, capped Head-to-Head accuracy rates further still. The all-Tipster average came in at 5.7 tips per Tipster and no single Tipster managed better than 6.5 from 9.

C_Marg was one of the Tipsters registering the maximum and so maintained its one tip lead at the top of the MatterOfStats Leaderboard where it now sits on 130 from 179 (73%), Bookie_9 and Combo_7 lying in joint-second behind it..

Margin prediction proved especially challenging this week, the draw and three underdog victories coming in the same week as four blowout victories by favourites, which left the all-Predictor average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) at 42.8 points per game per Predictor, the highest since Round 5, and the 3rd-highest of the season to date.

Combo_NN2 has the round's best and only sub-40 MAE, its 39.3 points per game effort almost exactly one point per game better than the next best, which was C_Marg's. That second-place performance allowed C_Marg to extend its margin at the top of the Leaderboard, which now is sized at over 25 goals.

On that Leaderboard, the only move of significance this week was ENS_Linear's climb into 5th from 7th.

In terms of profitable line betting records, C_Marg, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2 remain as the only Margin Predictors that can claim to have one. 

The preponderance of upsets also substantially lowered the probability scores of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors for the week, the H2H pair recording the best and only significantly above-zero score. C_Prob's score was slightly negative but not sufficiently worse than the Bookie trio's to see it surrender first place on the Leaderboard.

The Line Fund algorithm had one of its worst weeks of the season in terms of probability score, missing out on five home teams that won in the line market, and wagering on one of the only four other home teams that lost in this market.