2011 MARS Ratings After Round 19

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Near stasis again on the MAFL Ratings Leaderboard with only the teams rated last and second-last landing blows in the contest to avoid being labelled the Worst Team of 2011. Meantime Collingwood, now rated 1,065.9, have elevated themselves to be just over 2 points shy of the high-water mark set by the Dons of 2000 of 1,068.1 Ratings Points, the highest Rating achieved by any team in the time for which Ratings have been calculated (1999 to the present).
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2011 Round 19 Results: Another Assortment of Favourites

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For a fleeting few minutes on Saturday afternoon as the Dogs seemed destined to secure the most remarkable of comebacks, MAFL was notionally in profit. But the Eagles rebounded, kicking the last 14 points, compounding Investor disappointment by not just winning but by covering the spread as well. Then, later that night, Freo capitulated to the Hawks, leaving it all up to the Pies and the Crows to salvage the round.
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Some bit.ly links for MAFL

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The URL www.maflonline.squarespace.com is long and, if my weblogs are anything to go by, difficult to remember.

So, I've just used the bit.ly service to create redirects for the following URLs:

  • bit.ly/MAFLO
  • bit.ly/maflo
  • bit.ly/MAFLONLINE
  • bit.ly/maflonline
  • bit.ly/MAFLOnline

Typing any of these into your browser should now deliver you to the home page of the MAFLOnline website.

(I did try to get bit.ly/MAFL and bit.ly/mafl, but both were already taken.)

 

2011 Round 18 Results: The Favourites Prevail

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When all eight favourites win and only four of them are home teams it's probably too much to ask that Investors will make a killing in the round, especially through the efforts of the Head-to-Head Fund. Fortunately, the Head-to-Head Fund's four from seven performance, which resulted in a 4.3% loss for that Fund was more than compensated for by the Line Fund's 4 from 4, which lifted that Fund by 11.3% and, consequently, Investor Portfolios by 3.5c on the round. That's the fourth straight week of profit during which the Portfolio price has risen by over 20c to now stand at 95.8c. Breakeven, thy shall be mine.
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2011 Round 18: Betting Like It Knows Something ...

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How much start would I need to offer to tempt you to take the Suns with that start facing Collingwood on Saturday? Would 3 goals a quarter be enough? Well it's not enough for the Line Fund, which this week has passed on the opportunity to take the Suns with a record-breaking - well, in the context of my records, anyway - 80.5 points start. That's 15 points more than any other home team has received since at least 2006, and 5 points more than any other team has received in that time, period.
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2011 Round 16 Results: Eight from Nine

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Sufficiently sizeable wins by the Hawks, Dons and Pies, and an upset victory by the Eagles, lifted the Recommended Portfolio by over 11c this week, leaving it now under 10c short of breakeven. Only the Gold Coast's inability to topple the Swans - an admittedly unlikely prospect, especially with the unfailingly-illuminating benefit of hindsight - prevented Investors from enjoying a blemish-free round of wagers. The financial cost of that result was just 0.3%, which can I think be legitimately labelled as the price of a small speculative wager gone wrong.
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2011 A Comparison of Colley, Massey and MARS Ratings

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In the MARS Ratings review at the end of Round 14 I compared the MARS Ratings and Rankings of all teams with those of the Colley and Massey Systems at the same point in the season. It turned out that, except for a few teams, the rankings across the three Systems were similar. In this blog I'll be extending the comparison to look at other points in the season, specifically post Round 6, post Round 12 and post the most recent round, Round 15.
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2011 MARS Ratings After Round 15

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Nine movers this week on the MARS Ratings ladder, three of them multi-rung movers. The Dogs climbed most, jumping 3 spots to 6th and falling just 0.4 Ratings Points short of claiming 5th. West Coast, by virtue of not playing, and Fremantle, Essendon and Adelaide, by virtue of victories, all climbed 1 ladder position. Sydney, meantime, fell 3 spots to 8th, while Melbourne fell 2 spots and the Roos and Richmond fell 1 spot each.
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2011 Round 15: No Attachment

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Continuing Sunday's theme, this week I'm choosing to be unattached to the results that the round's football provides (we'll see how long that lasts ... I give it until about 8pm Friday night). This weekend there's less to be attached to anyway since we've no bet in three of the eight games and only a perfunctory 0.4% line bet in another. All told, we've just 2 head-to-head bets totalling just under 10% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 5 line bets totalling almost 15% of the Line Fund.
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2011 Round 14 Results: Small Wins, Bigger Losses

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It's a Zen thing. Winning by losing; succeeding by failing; being right by being wrong; profiting by making losses. Either that or football betting is subject to a version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle such that you can only understand the statistical characteristics of AFL or accurately estimate teams' true victory probabilities, but not both. In which case, five years of analysing and writing about the former has been irretrievably detrimental to the latter.
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