2011 A Comparison of Colley, Massey and MARS Ratings

In the MARS Ratings review at the end of Round 14 I compared the MARS Ratings and Rankings of all teams with those of the Colley and Massey Systems at the same point in the season. It turned out that, except for a few teams, the rankings across the three Systems were similar. In this blog I'll be extending the comparison to look at other points in the season, specifically post Round 6, post Round 12 and post the most recent round, Round 15.

Here's my take on the comparison on a team-by-team basis: 

  • Adelaide: ranked remarkably similarly across time by all three methods and now ranked 14th by Colley and Massey, 13th by MARS
  • Brisbane Lions: ranked last by Colley at every time point and a little more kindly by both Massey and MARS, which both now have the Lions ranked 15th
  • Carlton: like Adelaide, the Blues have been ranked very similarly by all three systems across the four points in time considered. They've been in the top 4 at every point and are now ranked 4th by Colley and MARS, and 3rd by Massey.
  • Collingwood: only Colley sees them as other than the top team. It's consistently ranked them 2nd while Massey and MARS have both consistently ranked them 1st.
  • Essendon: directionally, all three Systems have made similar changes to the Dons' rank over the course of the season, though they've started from quite different bases after 6 rounds. Massey now ranks them highest at 6th while Colley has them 8th and MARS 11th. When a team snaps a 5-game losing streak by knocking off the undefeated competition leaders, I think it's reasonable to find it hard to rank them.
  • Fremantle: similar to Essendon, Freo's been ranked all over the map by the various Systems across the season. There remains considerable variability of opinion with Colley placing them 7th, MARS 10th and Massey 12th.
  • Geelong: Colley has consistently ranked them 1st (though in the latest ratings they are only 0.00019 Ratings Points ahead of the Pies) while Massey and MARS now have them ranked 2nd.
  • Gold Coast: Colley's maintained them at 16th, a ranking that MARS also entertained for a while before joined Massey and ranking them last.
  • Hawthorn: All three Systems have rated them a top 5 team at every point. Colley and MARS now rank them 3rd, while Massey ranks them 4th.
  • Kangaroos: Colley, Massey and MARS agree that the Roos should be more highly-ranked now than they were at the beginning of the season, but they quibble over exactly how high. MARS has landed at 9th, Massey at 10th and Colley at 12th.
  • Melbourne: their loss to the Dogs this weekend lowered their ranking in the eyes of all three Systems: Massey to 9th, down 1 place; Colley to 10th, down 3 places; and MARS to 12th, down 2 places.
  • Port Adelaide: just minor quibbling about where to place them amongst the bottom three. For now, Colley has them at 15th, and Massey and MARS have them one place lower at 16th.
  • Richmond: Colley has flirted with rankings as high as 10th and MARS has had them as low as 15th. Currently there's near agreement with Colley and MARS ranking them 13th, and MARS ranking them 14th.
  • St Kilda: doubtless, they've benefited from a healthy carryover of MARS Ratings points from last season leading to a consistently elevated ranking of them by MARS, which currently ranks them 7th. Massey, which knows nothing of the Saints' 2010 exploits, ranks them 8th and Colley, similarly blinded to history prior to March this year, ranks them 9th.
  • Sydney: MARS has had the largest range of rankings for Sydney, from 9th after Round 6 to 5th as recently as last week, but their loss to the Crows has been enough to slip their MARS ranking to 8th, below that of Massey, which ranks them 7th, and even further below that of Colley, which ranks them 6th.
  • West Coast: another team that all three Systems rank higher now than they did after Round 6. All three now rank them 5th, a three-spot increase for Colley, a four-spot increase for Massey, and a seven-spot increase for MARS.
  • Western Bulldogs: though they've taken quite different paths to get there, Colley and Massey have both landed at a ranking of 11th for the Dogs. MARS ranks them 5 places higher at 6th, partly because of their relatively high ranking at the start of the season.