2011 Round 19: 1 point for an 11% swing

We've another short round this week comprising only seven games and Investors have a financial interest in just five of them, skipping the Friday night Roos v Blues matchup and the Saturday Suns and Saints fixture.

Head-to-head, Investors have just four wagers, one of them so small that I needed to add a second decimal to the Ready Reckoner to make its upside discernible. Of the remaining three, the Bulldogs wager - 7.6% at $2.10 - offers by far the greatest upside and the greatest downside.

Investors also face four line bets, most prominent amongst them one of nearly 12% on the Pies giving the Dons 46.5 start, the third-highest wager the Line Fund's made all season. Other line bets include two in the 4-5% range on the Dogs and Fremantle, both getting start, and one of just over 1% on the Crows in their derby with Port and also receiving start.

Those head-to-head and line wagers leave particularly interesting situations in two of the games. In the Dogs v Eagles clash, a Dogs win is worth over 6% to Investors while an Eagles win by over a goal will cost them 6%. Even more precipitous is what awaits Investors in the Pies v Essendon game, where the difference between a Pies win by 47 points and a win by 46 points instead is the difference between a gain of over 5% and a loss of nearly 6%. Here's hoping it's not time for the Pies' "loss they had to have".


On head-to-head tipping there's debate around the Friday Roos v Blues game, the Saturday Dogs v Eagles game, and the Sunday Freo v Hawks game, though in every case major Head-to-Head Tipster support is with the favourites. In the other four contests the Head-to-Head tipsters are unanimous, or nearly so, and are again supporting the favourites.

The Margin Predictors concur with the Head-to-Head Tipsters in every game bar the Dogs v Eagles matchup where they're supporting the underdog Dogs 8-5. In every other game all but at most 2 Predictors are tipping wins by the favourites.

Focussing on differences, we find ProPred_3 is the most aberrant Predictor this week, being narrowly biased against the home teams relative to all Predictors when it's normally considerably biased towards home teams. Other substantial differences is bias are being exhibited by:

  • ProPred_7, WinPred_3 and WinPred_7, this week all less home-team biased than is usual
  • H2H_Adj_7, this week more home-team biased than is usual
  • Combo_7, this week less away-team biased than is usual
  • Combo_NN_2, this week far more away-team biased than is usual 

We finish, as always, with the Probability Predictors, where, amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we find ProPred, WinPred and H2H all favouring the underdog Dogs, and WinPred favouring the underdog Fremantle. In all other games, all the Head-to-Head Predictors choose the same favourites and rate them as having roughly similar chances of victory.

In line betting, the Line Fund algorithm rates the Pies as 80% chances to cover the 46.5 points start they're giving the Dons, and the Saints, Dogs and Freo as 60% chances in their respective encounters. In the remaining three games it rates its line betting favourites as no better than 56% chances.