2026 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, flipping four pairs of teams, including flipping Geelong into 2nd ahead of Sydney. That left a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Their were no multi-spot movers.
MARS also reranked only six teams, flipping three pairs, but nothing in the Top 5, leaving it also with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Their were no multi-spot movers.
MoSHBODS RATINGS
Overall, MoSHBODS has only 10 teams rated as above average with the Dogs and Giants still just falling below the cutoff.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS now with a Top 3 of Swans, Lions, and Cats, while on defence it still has a Top 3 of Dockers, Crows, and Pies. Eleven teams are rated as above average on offence but only eight on defence.
Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.52 standard deviations (steady) and defensive ratings a range of 1.22 standard deviations (down). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.45 and that for defensive ratings 0.31. Increasingly, teams are more differentiated by their offensive abilities than by their defensive abilities.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.74, which is slightly up on last week.
We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 23 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)
We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.
MARS RATINGS
MARS still has only 10 teams rated better-than-average, with St Kilda just 0.4 points below the cutoff and the Western Bulldogs only 2,3 points below the same.
As noted earlier, it now has the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS.
The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 4.2 Rating Points (down), from 1st to 4th is 11 Rating Points (down), and from 1st to 10th is 33.4 Rating Points (down).
Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 91.1 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 33.4 Rating Points (up).
COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS
The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.989 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.024 times its MARS Rating less 24.4.
Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:
HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS
None
HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER
Geelong
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 10 teams now, and differ by as much as two spots about only two teams, Collngwood and GWS.
Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.986.
