2026 - Round 24 : Running Dead?

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This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two to three goals, one game by about three-and-a-half goals, two games by about six to six-and-a-half goals, and the remaining game by about ten goals.

Five games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.7 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 25.8 points per game.

Again this week, a lack of knowledge about teams’ underlying motivations leaves us vulnerable as forecasters and punters.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarian tips are rare again this week, with Home Sweet Home offering four and only MARS_Marg contributing one more.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in all but two games this week, most notably 26 points in the Pies v Lions, and Cats v Tigers games, 19 points in the Swans v Roos game, and 17 points in the Eagles v Hawks game.

MARS_Marg is Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are four games with a double-digit forecast range, most notably 25% points in the Pies v Lions game, and 13% points in the Crows v Giants, and Dons v Power games.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictors in five games this week, and Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob in four each.

WAGERS

This week the tendency was towards fewer, larger wagers.

There are only two head-to-head wagers but they total 7.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and there are just four line wagers but they total almost 14% of the original Line Fund. The only TGTBT vetoes were on Collingwood and GWS head-to-head wagers.

There was, surprisingly - especially after a winning week - no shenanigans.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner for these wagers appears below.

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by 9c, worst case a decrease by just under 11c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.