2026 - Round 12 : Even More Targeted

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We’re all on a League-enforced restricted diet of just seven games this week, with five of them expected to be won by about two goals or less, one by about three-and-a-half goals, and one by about ten-and-a-half goals.

There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.3 points per game, and two away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 17.4 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are only four contrarian tips this week, two from Home Sweet Home, and one each from Consult the Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in four games this week, most notably 25 points in the Sydney v Richmond clash, and 15 points in the West Coast v Essendon clash.

Bookie_9 and MoSHBODS_Marg are Extreme Predictors in three games each this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, three of the seven games has a double-digit percentage point forecast range, most notably 17% points in the West Coast v Essendon clash, and 13% points in the St Kilda v Hawthorn clash.

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and MARS_Prob in four games.

WAGERS

There are wagers in three of the seven games this week, comprising one head-to-head bet of 1.2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line bets totalling 6.1% of the original Line Fund and sized from 0.9% and 5.2% of that Fund.

The TGTBT rules prevented a large head-to-head wager on Essendon this weel, and the Insufficiently Large EV rules prevented a sizeable line bet on Collingwood.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Below is a Ready Reckoner that shows the Combined Portfolio returns that will accrue to different possible outcomes in each game.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.