2026 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, which included swapping Fremantle into 3rd ahead of Hawthorn, dropping Western Bulldogs down two places to 11th, dropping Port Adelaide down two places to 14th, and elevating GWS two places into 12th.

Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Dockers.

MARS moved 11 teams, with the only multi-spot movers being GWS up two into 10th, Brisbane Lions down three into 6th, and Collingwood down three into 11th. The Lions’ fall allowed the three teams below them to each rise by a spot, which moved Hawthorn into 3rd.

Its Top 3 then are now Cats, Swans, and Hawks.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average, with GWS and Carlton very close to joining that list.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Cats, Swans, and Lions, while on defence it still has a Top 3 of Dockers, Pies, and Hawks. Thirteen teams are rated as above average on offence but only seven on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.47 standard deviations (up) and defensive ratings a range of 1.13 standard deviations (down). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.37 and that for defensive ratings 0.32. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.66, which is quite a bit lower than last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 11 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that both the Cats and the Swans are the only teams rated above the median for Grand Finalists at this point of the season in the context of history, but the Cats aren’t quite in the top decile.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS now has 12 teams rated better-than-average, with Carlton next best on 997.9.

As noted earlier, it has the Hawks in its Top 3 at the expense of the Dockers relative to MoSHBODS.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 9.6 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 15.5 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 32.7 Rating Points (up).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 82.9 Rating Points (down), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 23.3 Rating Points (down).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.990 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.027 times its MARS Rating less 26.6.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • Melbourne (maybe)

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • None

Melbourne aside, every team is ranked by MoSHBODS and MARS within three places of its ladder position.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of eight teams now, and differ by no more than two spots about the ranking of only Collingwood and St Kilda.

They disagree most about the ranking of Collingwood (8th on MoSHBODS and 11th on MARS), and St Kilda (9th on MoSHBODS and 12th on MARS)

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.961.