2026 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again very close to the bookmakers’, but that’s something of an incidental outcome given that differences for individual games are as large as 21.5 points because, in that case, of forecast rain in the final game of the round.

There’s complete agreement again this week about the lowest and highest scoring teams, but not the lowest and highest scoring games:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Melbourne v GWS

  • Bookmakers: St Kilda v Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs v Collingwood

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v Essendon

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Sydney

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSHBODS, unfettered, would have wagered on all seven contests this week, but two potential unders wagers were ruled out by the TGTBT rule and one potential overs wager was ruled out by the Rain rule.

Interestingly, Investors have an unders wager in the other likely rain-affected contest of Sydney v Richmond.

In total, Investors have two overs and two unders wagers.

The estimated overlays for the unders wagers are about 3 points and the overs wagers about 3.5 and 9.5 points.

The practice of making unders bets only with sufficiently small overlays continues to be affirmed by the table at left that shows the accuracy of MoSHBODS on totals betting across different overlays.

There you can see that, in games where the overlay on an unders bet with the TAB is less than 6 points, MoSHBODS is on the right side 59% of the time.

The table provides no justification for overs betting with small overlays, but the sample size remains small. Larger overlays are though perhaps slightly more likely to be winners.

Vindication of the veto rules is provided by the table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

Last week the veto rules prevented what would otherwise have been even larger losses.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins, and MoSHBODS do the same for Away Team Scores. That allowed the TAB to wrest back season-long leadership on Home Team Scores and hold onto season-long leadership for Game Margins, and saw Sportsbet retain season-long leadership on Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet and 19 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB 6 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 7 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 8 points ahead of the TAB, and 38 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 140 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were only two bets last weekend, an unsuccessful overs bet and an unsuccessful unders bet with the TAB.

That left MoSHBODS at 10 and 10 against the TAB and at 1 and 1 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 5 of the 9 games and Sportsbet in 4 of the 9 games last week. It is now 52 from 99 (53%) against the TAB, and 49 from 99 (49%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.