2026 - Round 11 : Targeted

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This week’s nine games (and the last of nine game rounds until Round 17) includes seven that are expected to be decided by less than three goals, one that is expected to be decided by about three-and-a-half goals, and one more that is expected to be decided by just over seven goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is only 15.7 points per game.

There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.5 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.2 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are only five contrarian tips this week, three from Home Sweet Home, and two from Consult the Ladder.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in four games this week, most notably 14 points in the Collingwood v West Coast clash.

Bookie_3 and MoSHBODS_Marg are Extreme Predictors in four games each this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only one of the nine games has a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 12% points in the Hawthorn v Adelaide clash.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob in five games.

WAGERS

There are wagers in five of the nine games this week, comprising five head-to-head bets totalling just over 9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and ranging in size from 0.4% to 3.4% of that Fund, and four line bets totalling 8.5% of the original Line Fund and ranging in size from 0.2% to 2.9% of that Fund.

That feels like the sort of wagering round you’d like to have every week.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Below is a Ready Reckoner that shows the Combined Portfolio returns that will accrue to different possible outcomes in each game.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.