2026 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about as close to the bookmakers’ as it has been all season, despite individual forecasts being over 10 points different in two of the nine games.

The Thursday Hawthorn v Adelaide game is particularly interesting as MoSHBODS is predicting a final Total more than two goals higher than the bookmakers', despite the weather forecast portending no precipitation.

There’s complete agreement this week about the lowest and highest scoring teams, but not the lowest and highest scoring games:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v Sydney

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Collingwood v West Coast

  • Bookmakers: Hawthorn v Adelaide

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Collingwood

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Adelaide

WAGERS

MoSHBODS had hopes for four wagers this week, but two potential unders wagers were ruled out by the TGTBT rule. That rule is asymmetric with respect to sign, however, so it was permitted to truly lash out on an overs bet in the Thursday game.

The other wager is an entirely sensible unders bet in the second-last Sunday game.

The estimated overlays are about 14 and 4 points.

The practice of making unders bets only with sufficiently small overlays continues to be affirmed by the table at left that shows the accuracy of MoSHBODS on totals betting across different overlays.

There you can see that, in games where the overlay on an unders bet with the TAB is less than 6 points, MoSHBODS is on the right side 57% of the time.

The table provides no justification for overs betting with small overlays, but the sample size is tiny. Larger overlays are though perhaps slightly more likely to be winners.

Vindication of the veto rules is provided by the table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

That said, last week the veto rules did prevent what would otherwise have been quite a slightly more profitable set of wagers.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for all four metrics, which saw it also take season-long leadership on Home Team Scores. The TAB maintained season-long leadership on Game Margins, and Sportsbet did the same on Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 6 points ahead of Sportsbet and 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of Sportsbet and 6 points ahead of the TAB

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 3 points ahead of the TAB, and 40 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 8 points ahead of the TAB, and 120 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were five bets last weekend, one successful overs bet and two out of three successful unders wagers with the TAB, and one successful overs bet with Sportsbet.

That left MoSHBODS at 10 and 8 against the TAB and at 1 and 1 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 6 of the 9 games last week. It is now 47 from 90 (52%) against the TAB, and 45 from 90 (50%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.