2026 - Team Ratings After Round 10

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, which included swapping Geelong into 1st from 3rd, and Hawthorn into 3rd from 1st. The two other multi-spot moves were Adelaide up 3 places into 7th, and Western Bulldogs down 2 places into 9th.

Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Hawks.

MARS also moved 11 teams, with the only multi-spot movers being Melbourne up 2 into 9th, and Western Bulldogs down 3 into 10th.

Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Lions, with the Hawks in 4th.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average, with Port Adelaide still very close to joining that list.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS now with a Top 3 of Cats, Swans, and Lions, while on defence it has a Top 3 of Dockers, Pies, and Hawks. Twelve teams are rated as above average on offence but only seven on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.44 standard deviations (up) and defensive ratings a range of 1.14 standard deviations (down). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.37 and that for defensive ratings 0.33. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.71, which is a touch lower than last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 10 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that both the Swans and the Cats are rated quite highly at this point of the season in the context of history, but aren’t quite in the top decile of ratings for ultimate Grand Finalists.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS now has 11 teams rated better-than-average, with GWS a way back on 994.0.

As noted earlier, it has the Lions in its Top 3 at the expense of the Hawks, relative to MoSHBODS.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 6.1 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 13.5 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 28.6 Rating Points (up).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 84.2 Rating Points (down), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 24.3 Rating Points (down).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.990 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.027 times its MARS Rating less 26.7.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • Melbourne

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • None

Melbourne aside, then, every team is ranked by MoSHBODS and MARS within three places of its ladder position except Brisbane Lions with MARS.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of eight teams now, and differ by no more than two spots about the ranking of any team.

They disagree most about the ranking of Brisbane Lions (5th on MoSHBODS and 3rd on MARS), GWS (14th on MoSHBODS and 12th on MARS), Melbourne (11th on MoSHBODS and 9th on MARS) and Port Adelaide (12th on MoSHBODS and 14th on MARS)

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.977.