MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 7

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With seven rounds now completed, time then I think to once again review the more substantial differences between each team's ladder position and its ranking on the various Dashboard metrics:

  • Adelaide are 11th on the ladder but 5th in terms of Own Scoring Shots per Game, and 3rd in Quarters 2 and 3
  • Brisbane Lions are 18th on the ladder but 6th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Carlton are 16th on the ladder but 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion and 7th in Quarter 4s
  • Collingwood are 4th on the ladder but 18th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 17th in Quarter 4s
  • Essendon are 10th on the ladder but 5th on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game. They're also 5th in Quarter 1s, 18th in Quarter 2s, and 16th in Quarter 4s
  • Fremantle are 6th on the ladder but 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion and 1st in Quarter 4s
  • Geelong are 3rd on the ladder but 14th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 10th in Quarter 3s
  • Gold Coast are 5th on the ladder but 11th on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game, 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 10th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 13th in Quarter 2s
  • Hawthorn are 1st on the ladder but ... no worse than 3rd on any metric
  • Kangaroos are 8th on the ladder but 14th on Own Scoring Shots per Game, 16th in Quarter 1s, and 14th in Quarter 2s
  • Melbourne are 17th on the ladder but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (I figure that teams tire when they're getting so many shots ...)
  • Port Adelaide are 2nd on the ladder but 7th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Richmond are 13th on the ladder but 5th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 6th in Quarter 4s
  • St Kilda are 12th on the ladder but 18th on Quarter 1s
  • Sydney are 7th on the ladder but 12th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 12th in Quarter 4s
  • West Coast are 9th on the ladder but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game, 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 16th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Western Bulldogs are 15th on the ladder but 3rd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 6th in Quarter 2s

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 6

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The Suns have now risen as far as 6th place on the competition ladder despite having a sub-100 percentage, and Essendon have fallen to 12th with a percentage near 105.

In other curiosities, the teams currently in 4th and 5th spots (Collingwood and the Kangaroos) have both scored fewer goals than the team in 16th (Carlton) and fewer than eight other teams below them on the ladder.

What's more, Collingwood, who sit in 4th place on the ladder, have the 2nd-worst conversion rate of all teams, while the Dogs, who sit in 15th, have the 2nd-best conversion rate, and the Lions, who sit in last position, have the 4th-best conversion rate.

The Brisbane Lions are the only team to have failed to win a specific quarter in six attempts. In fact, they've done this for two quarters, having 0 from 6 records in 3rd and in 4th quarters. Conversely, Port Adelaide are the only team to have won all 6 of any quarter, this being the case for 3rd quarters in their games where they've this perfect record. In those quarters they have, in aggregate, outscored their opponents by more than 2:1.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 4

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The latest Team Dashboard includes the following pieces of information:

  • Carlton have scored more behinds than any of the teams currently sitting inside the Top 8. But, they've also scored nine fewer goals than any of those teams.
  • Collingwood are the only team in the top 10, and one of only two teams in the top 15 (the other being the Gold Coast), to have registered more behinds than goals.
  • Melbourne have conceded fewer goals than the nine teams sitting directly above them on the competition ladder. They've also scored 10 goals fewer than any other team in the competition, however, having racked up less than 2 goals per quarter on average so far this season.
  • The Brisbane Lions have recorded almost 15 fewer scoring shots per game than have their opponents and are the only team to have conceded more than 30 scoring shots per game.
  • Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are the only teams to have recorded more than 30 scoring shots per game.
  • The Western Bulldogs have the best scoring shot conversion rate of any team, their 65.4% marginally superior to Hawthorn's 62.9%. The Dogs have registered only 19.5 scoring shots per game though to the Hawks' 31.0.
  • The Brisbane Lions are still yet to record their first winning quarter and have been outscored by more than 2:1 by their opponents in 2nd and 3rd quarters. No other team has a sub-50 percentage for any single quarter.
  • Collingwood have outscored their opponents, on average, in only a single quarter, the 4th and even then only barely. Regardless, they sit in 9th place on the competition ladder.
  • Fremantle struggle only in 1st terms where they've won just 38% of the time and registered a 76 percentage. They outscore their opponents by over 2:1 in 3rd terms, however, the best percentage for this term of any team.
  • Hawthorn outscore their opponents by almost 3:1 in 2nd terms, their 273 being the highest percentage for any team in any single quarter.
  • Sydney outscore their opponents by about 3:2 in 1st terms but are outscored by their opponents in every other quarter, especially the 4th.


MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 3

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The latest Team Dashboard reveals that, among other things:

  • Adelaide's opponents have converted their Scoring Shots at an amazing 64.4% so far this season
  • The Bulldogs' opponents have performed almost equally as well, converting at 64%
  • The Brisbane Lions are yet to win a quarter this season
  • Adelaide are yet to win a 1st or a 4th Quarter
  • Carlton, Melbourne and Sydney are yet to win a 2nd Quarter
  • The Bulldogs are yet to win a quarter in the 2nd Half
  • GWS have outscored their opponents by 2.6:1 in 4th Quarters
  • Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents 2:1 in 1st Quarters
  • West Coast have the best 1st, 3rd and 4th Quarter records of any team

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 2

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It's too early in the season to be attempting to discern meaningful trends or statistics from the MatterOfStats Team Dashboard, but a handful of results are at least interesting:

  • Collingwood has started the season with an appalling conversion rate having kicked 17.33, superior only to Melbourne's 10.21
  • In contrast, the Dogs have made the most of the very few opportunities they've had, kicking 19.9 in their two games so far. St Kilda's 25.13 is almost as good in terms of conversion rate and, more importantly, has been enough to land them two wins to the Dogs' none.
  • Fremantle's opponents have struggled to convert their chances registering a combined 10.25 across the two games.
  • What's hurt the Bulldogs is that their opponents have not struggled at all in converting their chances having kicked 33.19 so far this season
  • The Brisbane Lions have yet to win a quarter all season, while the Eagles have yet to lose one.
  • Sydney have won the 1st quarter in both of their games but lost the three remaining quarters both times.


MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 1

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The Team Dashboard after Round 1 is below. Most of the content is, I hope, self-evident, but here's a brief overview of the Dashboard's contents.

Competition Ladder

This section provides most of the information that you'll find in a standard, extended competition ladder, including the goals and behinds scored and conceded by each team. It also shows the teams W/D/L performance for every game of the season.

Scoring Shot Data

This section, as its name suggests, focusses on the scoring statistics for each team and includes the average number of scoring shots recorded and conceded, the conversion rate - goals / (goals + behinds) - achieved and allowed, and the ranking of each team on each of these metrics.

The far right of this section compares each team's winning percentage with that which we'd expect based on that team's scoring behaviour. It uses the Win Production Function described in this blog post from 2011.

Quarter By Quarter Performance

This final section provides details about each team's winning percentage and scoring percentage (points scored divided by points conceded multiplied by 100) in each quarter of the game taken separately.

Team rankings for each quarter are also provided, these based firstly on winning percentages, with scoring percentage used to break ties.



MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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Before providing the final Team Dashboard of the season I want to present a summary view of each team's performance this season, which I've done by creating a bubble chart where the area is proportional to the victory margin in the relevant game and the colour reflects the result from the viewpoint of the Home team.

One aspect of the season that I think this chart makes particularly clear is the general narrowness of the Roos' defeats. To see this, peruse the collection of small, red circles on the row labelled "Kangaroos" and the assemblage of small, green circles - which also denote Roos losses - in the column labelled similarly.

Also highlighted by this chart is the magnitude of many GWS and Melbourne losses and, more subtly, the inequity of the home-and-away clashes that were missed as a consequence of the non all-plays-all home-and-away nature of the AFL draw. Which team wouldn't, for example, want one of those large green circles that proliferate in the columns labelled "GWS" or "Melbourne"?

With that by way of entree, here's the season's final Team Dashboard:

(I've left the Dons in 7th though I realise that, officially, they'll finish 9th.)

The Roos, therefore, have missed out on a place in the Finals despite finishing the season having scored, on average, about 20% more points than their opponents, ranking them 5th amongst all teams, while Port Adelaide have made it after racking up only a bit over 2% more points than they conceded.

Somewhat unusually, half of the teams that have lived to fight another week found themselves on the end of a loss this week, while five of the teams that won't participate in the Finals were victorious. The end of any AFL season is often a curious time ...

At the end of the home-and-away season only two teams have recorded more than two wins fewer than would have been expected based on their scoring shot data and MAFL's Win Production Function: Adelaide, who recorded 2.6 wins fewer, and the Roos, who recorded over 5 wins fewer. No team recorded more than 1.6 wins more than would have been expected, and half of the teams finished within 1 win - plus or minus - of the number we'd have expected.

Hawthorn finished the home-and-away season as the team generating the greatest number of scoring shots per game, while the Dees finished as the team generating the fewest. Fremantle conceded the fewest and GWS the greatest number per game.

Fremantle also recorded the highest scoring shot conversion rate, and Carlton the lowest, while GWS allowed the greatest proportion of scoring shots to be converted to goals and Carlton allowed the smallest proportion - how else could the Blues have hoped to have made the Finals given their own inability to convert?

The Roos were best at 1st Quarters, Sydney at 2nd Quarters, Geelong at 3rd Quarters, and Port Adelaide at 4th Quarters, while worst, respectively, were the Dogs, Dees, Giants and the Saints.

Rank correlations between final ladder position and ranking on the various metrics were as follows:

  • Competition Ladder vs Own Scoring Shot production: +0.78
  • Competition Ladder vs Opponent Scoring Shot production: +0.90
  • Competition Ladder vs Own Conversion rate: +0.52
  • Competition Ladder vs Opponent Conversion rate: +0.29
  • Competition Ladder vs Q1 Performances: +0.76
  • Competition Ladder vs Q2 Performances: +0.95
  • Competition Ladder vs Q3 Performances: +0.74
  • Competition Ladder vs Q4 Performances: +0.56

This year, it seems, success was very much about ensuring that opponent's scoring opportunities were hard to convert and about performing especially well in 2nd terms.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

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Should Port Adelaide defeat Carlton next week and, as some are suggesting might the case, the Dons are excluded from the Finals or choose not to participate, then it's possible we'll have a team, the Brisbane Lions, playing in the Finals with a percentage below 90 and another team, the Roos, not playing despite recording a percentage during the home-and-away season above 120. 

In truth, even if they lose, Carlton would still be favoured to grab any vacated Finals berth however, as the scenario just outlined would require that the Lions draw with or defeat the Cats, which seems unlikely, especially in light of the Lions' near loss to the lowly Dogs this week after leading by over 50 points..

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 20

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It's been a little while since we looked at the strengths and weaknesses of each team in terms of the metrics on the MAFL Team Dashboard, so let's do that this week: 

  • Adelaide, 12th on the ladder, are 17th on Own Conversion rate, but 3rd in final terms
  • Brisbane, 13th on the ladder, are 18th on Own Conversion rate, but 8th on Opponent Conversion rate and in final terms 
  • Carlton, 9th on the ladder, are 13th on Own Conversion rate and in final terms, but 1st on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Collingwood, 5th on the ladder, are 13th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th on Opponent Scoring Shots per game
  • Essendon, 7th on the ladder, are 11th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th in final terms
  • Fremantle, 4th on the ladder, are 14th on Own Scoring Shots per game, but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shots per game
  • Geelong, 2nd on the ladder, are 16th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st on 3rd Quarter performances
  • Hawthorn, 1st on the ladder, are 9th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st on Own Scoring Shots per game
  • Kangaroos, 11th on the ladder, are 11th on 3rd Quarter performances (yes, 11th is the worst ranking they have on any metric), but 1st on 1st Quarter performances and on Own Conversion rate
  • Melbourne, 17th on the ladder, are 18th on Own Scoring Shots per game and on 2nd Quarter performances, but 10th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Port Adelaide, 8th on the ladder, are 15th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st in final terms
  • Richmond, 6th on the ladder, are 14th on Own Conversion rate, but 4th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • St Kilda, 16th on the ladder, are 17th on performances in final terms, but 7th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Sydney, 3rd on the ladder, are 11th on performances in final terms, but 1st on 2nd Quarter performances
  • West Coast, 10th on the ladder, are 18th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th on Own Scoring Shots per game and in 3rd terms
  • Western Bulldogs, 15th on the ladder, are 18th on performances in 1st terms, but 6th on Own Conversion rate

Having read that list, it's probably no surprise that the weakest rank correlation between competition ladder position and ranking on any single metric is for Opponent Conversion rate, for which it is only +0.18. The next-weakest correlation is with Own Conversion rate where it's +0.51.

Strongest correlations are for Opponent Scoring Shots per game (+0.93), and for performances in 2nd Quarters (+0.92). Surprisingly - to me anyway - the correlation between performances in final terms and competition ladder position is a relatively weak +0.60.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

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Time, perhaps, again to look at the significant differences between each team's competition ladder position and their ranking on the various Team Dashboard metrics.

Here are some of the major differences: 

  • Carlton, 9th on the ladder, are 4th on Scoring Shots per game, and 1st on Opponent Conversion Rate
  • Collingwood, 7th on the ladder, are 13th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 16th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Essendon, 4th on the ladder, are 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Fremantle, 5th on the ladder, are 14th on Scoring Shots per game
  • Geelong, 2nd on the ladder, are 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Gold Coast, 14th on the ladder, are 5th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • GWS, 18th on the ladder, are 9th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Hawthorn, 1st on the ladder, are 12th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • The Kangaroos, 10th on the ladder, are 2nd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Melbourne, 17th on the ladder, are 8th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Port Adelaide, 8th on the ladder, are 12th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Richmond, 6th on the ladder, are 15th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • St Kilda, 16th on the ladder, are 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 11th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Sydney, 3rd on the ladder, are 6th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • West Coast, 11th on the ladder, are 7th on Own Scoring Shots per game, and 18th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • The Western Bulldogs, 15th on the ladder, are 3rd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion

As is apparent from the disparity between ladder position and Scoring Shot Conversion rates laid bare by this list, in 2013 Scoring Shot Conversion rates have mattered little - instead it's been about Scoring Shot production and prevention.

(The Roos are currently the only team who have won or lost (in their case, lost) more than 2 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest they should have.) 

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 17

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This week I thought I'd look again at the rank correlations between teams' competition ladder positions and their ranking on some of the metrics from the Team Dashboard.

Currently, the metric most highly correlated with ladder position is the number of Scoring Shots conceded per game for which the rank correlation is +0.90. The next most highly correlated metrics are Scoring Shots created (+0.83) and the teams' performances in 2nd Quarters (also +0.83).

Thereafter come teams' performances in 3rd Quarters (+0.79), teams' performances in 4th Quarters (+0.72), and then teams' performances in 1st Quarters (+0.66). Teams that have led at the first change this season have won only about two-thirds of the time. That's similar to the rate achieved in 2011 but significantly lower than the rate of about 75% that we witnessed in 2012.

The only metrics less correlated with teams' ladder positions are the teams' scoring shot conversion metrics. Teams' own scoring shot conversion rate correlates at only +0.32 with their ladder positions, while the average conversion rate of their opponents correlates at only +0.21. As I think I've noted before, this season has been about the volume of scoring shots created and conceded by teams, not about the rate at which those scoring shots have been converted.

(I'll just note in passing that the Roos, on the back of another loss with a score than would win most games (16.12), have now won almost 4.5 games fewer than their aggregate scoring shot performances for the season and MAFL's Win Production function suggest they should have.)

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 16

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Seven of the teams in the competition's top 8 recorded victories this week, all as favourites in their respective games, while the two remaining victories came from the teams now in 9th (also as favourites) and in 13th position.

What now separates the teams in positions 1 and 2 is their respective scoring abilities, as both are equal on competition points and, coincidentally, also on points conceded. Further down the ladder, it's also offensive ability that predominantly separates 4th from 5th, with Sydney's 1,550 points eclipsing Freo's 1,322.

Even further down the ladder, the Roos continue to look oddly out of place, after yet another agonising and narrow loss has left them in 11th place with a 116 percentage, the 2nd-best conversion rate in the league, and the best Q1 statistics of any team.


MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 14

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Having just recorded another week's profitable wagering, I'm in a charitable mood tonight, so I'm going to highlight for each team the metric (or metrics) on which it is currently performing best.

  • Adelaide are 4th best in 4th Quarters
  • Brisbane Lions are 7th best on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Carlton are best on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Collingwood are 8th best on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game and on 1st and 2nd Quarters (and 8th on the ladder)
  • Essendon are 2nd best on 3rd Quarters
  • Fremantle are best on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game and on 2nd Quarters
  • Geelong are best in 3rd Quarters
  • Gold Coast are 9th on 1st and 3rd Quarters
  • GWS are 8th on Own Conversion rate
  • Hawthorn are best on Own Scoring Shots per Game, Own Conversion Rate (and 1st on the ladder)
  • Kangaroos are best on 1st Quarters
  • Melbourne are 10th on Own Conversion rate
  • Port Adelaide are best on 4th Quarters
  • Richmond are 3rd on 1st Quarters
  • St Kilda are 6th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Sydney are 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game, Opponent Conversion rate, and on 2nd Quarters (they're also 2nd on the ladder)
  • West Coast are 4th on Own Scoring Shots per Game and on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game
  • Western Bulldogs are 5th on Own Conversion rate

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 13

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Here's the latest Team Dashboard, which this week returns to ordering teams in the same way as the official competition ladder since all teams have now played the same number of games.

(Just one comment this week: it must be a long time since a team with a 107 percentage and the best record in the league in 1st terms has sat 5 places and 3 wins outside the finals. Tough year to be a Roos supporter.)

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 12

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Here's the latest Team Dashboard (along with a reminder that I order the teams in the Dashboard based on the competition points earned as a percentage of the maximum possible for a team, given the number of games that it has played. That's why, for example, I have Essendon, who've played 12 games, behind Sydney and Fremantle who have fewer competition points but from fewer games.)

This week I'll just highlight a few things that have caught my eye from the Competition Ladder itself. Mostly they're of no particular import and are probably best described as "interesting" rather than "insightful".

  • Fremantle have scored fewer goals than any other team in the top 13 positions on the ladder. But, they've also conceded the fewest goals of any team in the competition.
  • Two-thirds of the teams in the competition have a percentage above 100, which highlights the feasting that's been going on when the top teams have played the bottom teams.
  • Carlton, in 10th spot on the ladder, have scored more behinds than any other team in the competition. They've also conceded third-most, better only than Melbourne and GWS.
  • Between them, despite making up only one-ninth of the teams in the competition, Melbourne and GWS have conceded over one-sixth of the goals and almost 15% of the behinds.
  • Amongst them, over the past 5 weeks, the bottom 4 teams have recorded just a single win from the 17 games they've played.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 11

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The latest Team Dashboard follows, for which I'd note that my ordering of the teams will differ from the "official" view. This is because I adjust for byes by ranking teams based on the competition points they've accrued relative to the opportunities they've had to accrue them, not by the total points they've actually accrued. Practically, right now that affects the rankings only of Fremantle, Essendon, Richmond and Port Adelaide.

This week I'll restrict my comments to those relating to team Quarter-by-Quarter performances, about which I'll note that:

  • Adelaide are poor starters but strong finishers in each half of games, being ranked 11th and 12th in Q1 and Q3, but 4th and 2nd in Q2 and Q4
  • Carlton are particularly weak in Q2 (ranked 13th) but strong in Q3 (ranked 4th)
  • Collingwood are notably weak in Q4 where they're ranked 12th and have a percentage of just 100
  • Fremantle are strong in Q2 where they're ranked 2nd
  • Geelong are the best team in the competition in Q3 but only 12th in Q1
  • Gold Coast have much better 2nd halfs than 1st halfs - they're ranked 6th and 8th in Q3 and Q4, and 10th and 14th in Q1 and Q2
  • Hawthorn are surprisingly poor in Q2 where they're ranked only 11th having won only 55% of these quarters
  • The Roos are the best team in the competition in Q1 where they've a 91% win rate and a 217 percentage
  • Port Adelaide, similar to Adelaide, are poorest in Q1s and Q3s where they're ranked 16th and 10th, and strongest in Q2s and, especially, Q4s where they've ranked 5th and 1st.
  • Richmond are most notably weak in Q3 where they're ranked 13th
  • Sydney, unlike the Swans of previous years, are relatively poor finishers being ranked 11th in Q4s