The win-production function, which was created early in 2011 and which hasn't been updated since, remains an accurate model for projecting team winning rates.
Only five teams have won or lost 1.5 games more or fewer than would be expected on the basis of their own and their opponents' season-average scoring shot production and conversion this season:
- The Roos, who've won 3.5 games fewer than would be expected
- Carlton, who've won 2.3 games fewer
- St Kilda, who've won 1.8 games fewer
- Adelaide, who've won 1.7 games fewer, and
- Geelong, who've won 1.6 games more
Were we to order the teams based on their Expected Winning rate as calculated by the win-production function, only six teams would move relative to their position on the current competition ladder by more than one place, and eight would not move at all. The rank correlation between the ordering produced by the win-production function and the competition ladder ordering stands at +0.95.
The big movers if we used the win-production function to rank the teams would be Collingwood, who'd fall four places to 11th, and the Roos, who'd climb by the same amount to 6th. Other teams to move multiple places would be the Lions (down 2 spots to 16th), the Cats (down 2 spots to 4th), the Blues (up 2 spots to 9th), and the Saints (up 2 spots to 14th).