2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 22

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); certain of Top 4; roughly 97% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; roughly 50% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Adelaide and Geelong: certain of being finalists; roughly 15-20% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Western Bulldogs: certain of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 80% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  10. St Kilda: about 15% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  11. GWS: about 5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  12. North Melbourne: <0.5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  13. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 9 teams certain of finishing Top 10, with Carlton, St Kilda, or GWS (or North Melbourne with miracles) to fill the 10th spot and Carlton the heavy favourite

  • 2 certain of finishing Top 4, and 6 more teams with chances (including a very unlikely Collingwood)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Fremantle ($3)

  • Sydney ($4.50)

  • Brisbane Lions ($8.25)

  • Hawthorn ($9.25)

  • Geelong ($12)

  • Melbourne ($20)

  • Adelaide ($31.50)

  • Collingwood ($63.50)

  • Carlton ($105)

  • Western Bulldogs ($275)

  • St Kilda ($1,000)

  • GWS ($3,500)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 22,540 different Top 18s

  • 2,670 different Top 10s (and 4 different sets of 10 teams in them - 9 teams certain and 4 teams with some non-zero chance)

  • 56 different Top 4s (and 15 different sets of 4 teams in them - 2 teams certain and 2 more teams from 6 teams with )

The 20 most-likely Top 10s are in the table below. They include every Top 10 with an estimated probability of at least 1% and then collectively account for just one one-third of the simulated final Top 10s.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are in some cases higher, in some cases lower, and in some cases unchanged compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-20 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 5% from 1%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-7 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 42% from 53%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s still about a 1-in-2 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (steady at 49%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-5 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down to 20% from 36%)