2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder and the Finals After Round 23

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: certain of being Minor Premiers

  2. Sydney: certain of Top 4

  3. Hawthorn: certain of being finalists; 95% chance of Top 6; roughly 80-85% chances of Top 4

  4. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; 95% chance of Top 6; roughly 60% chances of Top 4

  5. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chance of Top 6; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4

  6. Geelong: certain of being finalists; roughly 95% chance of Top 6; roughly 20% chances of Top 4

  7. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chance of Top 6; roughly 1% chances of Top 4

  8. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Carlton: certain of being finalists; no chance of Top 6

  9. St Kilda, GWS, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: no chance of being finalists

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

With the 10 finalists and the minor premier locked in, the only interest is which teams finish Top4 and Top 6.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Fremantle ($2.90)

  • Sydney ($5)

  • Brisbane Lions ($8)

  • Hawthorn ($10)

  • Geelong ($12)

  • Melbourne ($12.50)

  • Adelaide ($55)

  • Collingwood ($65)

  • Carlton ($110)

  • Western Bulldogs ($275)

FINALS DETAILS

For the first time this season, let’s take a look at what the simulations are suggesting about the details of the Finals series - that is, who loses to whom in what week and how often?

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 698 different Top 18s

  • 141 different Top 10s (but only 1 set of 10 just arranged in different orders)

  • 18 different Top 4s (and 10 different sets of 4 teams in them - 2 teams certain and 5 more teams with chances ranging from 1% to 83%)

The 20 most-likely Top 10s are in the table below. They include every Top 10 with an estimated probability of at least 1% and they collectively account for just over 85% of the simulated final Top 10s.

The 8 most-likely Top 4s are in the table at right. They include every Top 4 with an estimated probability of at least 1% and they collectively account for 98.5% of the simulated final Top 4s.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the usual final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are in some cases higher compared to last week’s, and in other cases they are zero:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s no chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down from 5%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s slightly over a 1-in-2 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 53% from 42%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s now about a 3-in-5 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 61% from 49%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s no chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down from 20%)