2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 21

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 95% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 25-40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: 97-98% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and St Kilda: about 35-50% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 11 teams with about or better than a 1-in-2 chance of finishing Top 10

  • 6 teams with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 4

There were some very large percentage point changes in some team’s chances this week:

Top 4

  • Brisbane Lions -40% points, Geelong +25% points

Top 6

  • Brisbane Lions -18% points, Collingwood -13%, Geelong +22% points

Top 10

  • St Kilda -29% points, Carlton +22% points

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 12.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 15 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Fremantle ($2.65)

  • Sydney ($6)

  • Hawthorn ($6.25)

  • Geelong ($10.25)

  • Brisbane Lions ($14.50)

  • Adelaide ($17.25)

  • Melbourne ($36)

  • Collingwood ($65)

  • Western Bulldogs ($165)

  • St Kilda ($210)

  • Carlton ($250)

  • GWS ($600)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 92,222 different Top 18s

  • 12,223 different Top 10s (and 12 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 120 different Top 4s (and 30 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are, except for Minor Premier, all higher, some substantially, compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-100 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (steady at 1%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 9-in-17 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 53% from 32%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 1-in-2 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 49% from 42%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 9-in-25 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (up to 36% from 26%)