AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 9

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This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 97% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton and Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 75-80% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: virtually certain of being finalists; around 50% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney and Hawthorn: roughly 85-90% chances of being finalists; around 2-<0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle: roughly 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Adelaide, and West Coast: around 5% chance of being finalists; < 0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond, Brisbane, Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 8 teams with abour or better than an 85% chance of finishing Top 8, and five with about or better than a 1-in-2 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 9.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for 10.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.70)

  • Melbourne (about $7.60)

  • Carlton (about $8.70)

  • Geelong (about $11.20)

  • Gold Coast (about $55)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $60)

  • Hawthorn (about $75)

  • Sydney (about $275)

  • Fremantle (about $900)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 488,974 different Top 18s

  • 11,069 different Top 8s (and 60 different sets of 8 teams in them)

  • 314 different Top 4s (and 38 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our new estimates are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 9-in-25 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 36% from 55%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 5-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 54% from 42%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 8-in-25 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 32% from 43%)