AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 6

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This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-35% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 65% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: roughly 90% chances of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 75-85% chances of being finalists; around 20-30% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Gold Coast: around 55% chance of being finalists; around 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Adelaide and Brisbane: around 35-45% chance of being finalists; roughly 2-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle: around 25% chance of being finalists; around 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond and Port Adelaide: around 10% chance of being finalists; around 1-<0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. West Coast: around 2% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. GWS, Collingwood, Essendon, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 10 teams with about or better than a 1-in-3 chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 9 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for 10.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.75)

  • Melbourne (about $4.50)

  • Carlton (about $14.25)

  • Geelong (about $26)

  • Hawthorn (about $46)

  • Brisbane (about $46)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $61)

  • Adelaide (about $102)

  • Sydney (about $170)

  • Gold Coast (about $400)

  • Fremantle (about $500)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our current estimates are again very close to last week’s:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 9-in-25 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 36% from 14%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 9-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 45% from 42%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 5-in-9 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 54% from 55%)