WoSHBODS tipped only 3 from 9 winners this week, while the bookmakers tipped 7.

Its Margin MAE was 22.4 points per game, compared to 15.1 and 15 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 24.9 points per game, compared to 24.8 for the two bookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of -2.7 bits compares to +0.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

It was a not a good round in terms of forecasting performance.

WAGERS

All three Funds lost money this week, in a round when it seemed we’d found the reverse Midas touch. Altogether, the Combined Portfolio fell by just over 11c on the round to leave it now down by 9.5c on the season, that from a -11.5% ROI on a 0.82 turn.

It was also not a good round in terms of wagering performance.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Below is a table recording how the teams rank on various Team Dashboard metrics.

The metrics most rank correlated with ladder position are:

MoS Win Production Function: +0.98
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.91
Own Points per Game: +0.83
Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.83
Own Goals per Game: +0.83
Opponent Goals per Game: +0.8
Opponent Points per Game: +0.79
Q4 Performances: +0.76
Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.73

No metric is rank correlated with ladder position less than +0.5.

Next come the details of the Team Dashboard in two parts.

In the top part we can see that the Top 9 teams represent 76% of all wins and only 24% of all losses.

We can also see that Melbourne has scored an average of more than 10 games a game while fewer than four. St Kilda are roughly the opposite.

In the bottom half we see that:

North Melbourne and Melbourne have won 18 of 24 quarters this season. Gold Coast and Sydney are next with 16.
Over the same time period, Essendon has won only 5 quarters, and St Kilda and Collingwood just 6.
The teams that have outscored their opponents, on average, in every quarter are Carlton, North Melbourne, and Melbourne
Those that have been outscored by their opponents, on average, in every quarter are Collingwood, Essendon, and St Kilda
Melbourne have yet to lose a Q4
Sydney have yet to lose a Q3
Collingwood have yet to win a Q3
Essendon have yet to win a Q4
Western Bulldogs have scored only 7% of their points in Q3s
Hawthorn have conceded only 9% of their points in Q3s