AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 10

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This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 96% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: virtually certain of being finalists; around 50% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton and Western Bulldogs: virtually certain of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney: roughly 99% chances of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Hawthorn: roughly 70% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle: roughly 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Port Adelaide and Adelaide: around 3-4% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. West Coast, Richmond, Brisbane, Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 8 teams with about or better than a 75% chance of finishing Top 8, and six with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 9.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for 10.5 wins

The overall simulations suggest that 7 wins should be enough to guarantee a spot in the Top 8, and 9 wins a spot in the Top 4.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.75)

  • Melbourne (about $6.25)

  • Geelong (about $8.25)

  • Carlton (about $14.25)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $35)

  • Gold Coast (about $60)

  • Hawthorn (about $135)

  • Sydney (about $155)

  • Fremantle (about $1,250)

  • Adelaide (about $2,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 135,124 different Top 18s

  • 2,409 different Top 8s (and 14 different sets of 8 teams in them)

  • 132 different Top 4s (and 19 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our new estimates are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-2 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 50% from 36%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 5-in-7 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 72% from 54%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 3-in-7 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (up to 42% from 32%)