WoSHBODS is, like the bookmakers, forecasting seven home team wins and two away wins this week. The largest absolute difference between WoSHBODS’ and the bookmakers’ margin forecasts is just under 9 points in the Suns v Tigers game, and the average absolute difference is only 4.8 points per game.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

Under 2 goals: 0 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 7 games
Over 4 goals: 2 games

The bookmakers would have only 4 games in the middle category, and 5 games in the bottom category.

The average expected absolute margin is 25.0 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 25.7 points per game according to the bookmakers.

WAGERS

The table below documents the round’s wagers and records considerably less action this week.

Overall, Investors have a head-to-head interest in just three games, and a line market interest in seven, with the head-to-head bets all on underdogs, and the line bets on three underdogs and four favourites.

The head-to-head bets total 3.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets 9.5% of the Line Fund.

In total, then, just over 7% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk. A best possible set of results would left the price of the Combined Portfolio by just under 13c.