Both ChiPS and MARS expected the Swans to prevail in the Grand Final, so their loss saw them drop Ratings Points (RPs) on both Systems. Regardless, the Swans end the season as the top-rated team by ChiPS and MARS, while the Dogs finish 7th.Read More
This year, I introduced MoSSBODS in the hope that it would, without any Bookmaker input at all, perform creditably enough in picking winners, help Investors make a little money, and, occasionally, make contrarian but, in hindsight, prescient predictions.Read More
Clearly, not an ideal weekend for Investors as all four wagers were trousered by the Bookmaker, but it'd be a stone-cold heart that didn't rejoice at least a little at the results, especially in the Dogs' progress to a Grand Final after so, so long.Read More
Last weekend, both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds passed entirely on proceedings, leaving the Over/Under Fund to provide the round's only wagering action. This weekend, the opposite is true, and Investors find themselves with two head-to-head bets, two line bets, and no over/under bets at all.Read More
Experience has taught me, more than once, that it's unwise to crow too loudly or too long when your statistical modelling approach has proven prescient. Nonetheless, history shows that simple stats modelling here on MoS has highlighted, for example, Freo's fatal flaws last year well before they bowed out of the Finals, and similarly has questioned the credentials of the Roos this season after they went 9 and 0.Read More
If MoSSBODS is anywhere near the mark, we're in for a couple of very close games this weekend, closer even than is implied by the roughly 2-goal handicaps that bookmakers have set for these games.Read More
Investors enjoyed collects on five of the weekend's six wagers, missing out on a perfect record only because of the narrowness of the Cats' victory margin.
Those five wins and a loss added 2.2c to the Head-to-Head Fund, 0.4c to the Line Fund, and 3.6c to the Overs/Unders Fund, lifting the Overall Portfolio by 1.8c and putting it now 14.7c in profit for the season. That profit has come from a 7.6% ROI and a 1.9 turn on the funds in the Portfolio.Read More
Since the turn of the century, upsets have been relatively rare in Finals, so with the four home teams all mild to firm favourites this week, it's as well that the Head-to-Head Fund is constrained to betting on home teams alone.Read More
There was a little movement on MARS this weekend, though nothing altering its opinion of the Top 3 teams, which remain Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast in that order. Team ratings matter considerably less though now than does access to the double-chance, so the Cats' move into 4th-place on MARS is probably of more significance for the Flag.Read More
An upset win by Essendon over Carlton on Saturday was the only significant joy for Investors this weekend, the head-to-head and line betting collects from that result added to only by much smaller profits on the Saints at the line and from a single successful over/under wager.Read More
So far this season, the average Line Fund wager has been for almost exactly 1.5% of the original Fund value, so it's a mite disconcerting that the Fund has chosen Round 23 with all the associated uncertainties about team motivational levels to make three bets each of 2% or more of the Fund. It, of course, knows nothing about the distorting influence of preferred draft picks.
It's also plumped for a fourth wager of just over 0.5% on the Saints giving the Lions 50.5 points start.
The Head-to-Head Fund, as has been the case all season, has narrowed its focus to consider only the same teams as the Line Fund, this week doubling-down on the Line Fund's larger wagers in three of games, passing only on the opportunity to get behind the Saints at $1.06. I am, I'll admit, very grateful for that.
With the larger-than-usual line bets, Investors face some sizeable swings between the best- and worst-case outcomes. The spread is largest for the Dons v Blues game where it spans over 5%, a Dons win promising a 3.4% gain and a loss by over 22 points threatening a 1.8% loss.
The spread in the Roos v Giants game is almost as large (4.6%), in the Crows v Eagles game a little smaller (3.4%), and in the Saints v Lions game smallest of all (0.4%).
In aggregate, the seven wagers put 6% of the original Overall Portfolio at risk for a maximum return of 7.6%. So, regardless of the weekend's results, MoS will definitely finish the home-and-away season in profit.
Last year, by way of painful contrast, Investors entered the Finals down by almost 33%.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Were it not for Home Sweet Home, this week would see the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters in complete unanimity across all nine games.
As it is, the Overall Disagreement Index is just 8%, HSH responsible for its own Disagreement index of 44% and for the 4% figures for all other Tipsters.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, it's MoSSBODS_Marg and its derivative Predictors that this week have the highest mean absolute deviations (MADs), they and Bookie_3 the only Predictors with MADs above the all-Predictor average of 4.9 points per game per Predictor.
Only three games have MADs above this average. The Hawks v Pies game has by far the largest MAD of 9.1 points per Predictor, forecasts in that game ranging from a 6-point Hawks victory (ENS_Greedy_MoSS) to a 34-point Hawks victory (Bookie_3).
The two other games with above-average MADs are the Crows v Eagles game (5.5 points) and the Swans v Tigers game (5.3 points).
MoSSBODS_Prob's head-to-head probability assessments are the most divergent from the all-Predictor game averages this week, its MAD of 5.9% points per game almost 1.5% points larger than the all-Predictor average of 3.5% points per game. It differs most from all other Predictors in its estimates of the Crows' (89%), Roos' (49%), and Dockers' (18%) chances.
Still, I suppose, it's not going to drag itself off the bottom of the ladder by offering up conformist probability assessments.
The various MoSSBODS-based forecasters have been informed by the following view of this week's matchups.
Adelaide's projected 41-point victory stems from a significant underlying Offensive superiority (+6 SS), bolstered by a +4 SS Net Venue Effect, 3 SS of which stem from the interstate nature of the clash, and the rest from the teams' historical under- or over-achievement at the venue.
Similarly, according to MoSSBODS, the Roos' relatively elevated chances come entirely from a +3.4 SS Net Venue Effect, this fillip only falling short by 0.2 SS of having the Roos rated as favourites.
In the other games, MoSSBODS' projected winners are the teams with the superior assessed underlying ability, the Net Venue Effects merely reinforcing or slightly diminishing the expected victory margin for those teams.
Four teams are expected to score or exceed 100 points this week, St Kilda (128), Adelaide (111), Sydney (101), and Port Adelaide (100), while Richmond and Fremantle are expected to duel for the mantle of the round's lowest-scoring team.
The Saints v Lions game is projected to produce the most points (200), and the Dockers v Dogs game the fewest (145).
A much better showing by MoSSBODS this week helped the Head-to-Head Fund land 2 from 3, and the Unders/Overs and Line Funds each land 3 from 4, and was enough to lift the Overall Portfolio by 3.3c across the weekend. It's now up by 14.7c on the season.Read More