2016 - Round 27 (Finals Week 3) Results - Quite The Finish

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So, MoSSBODS finishes the season by tipping the winner of the Grand Final to move it three tips clear of BKB at season's end with a score of 152 from 207 (73%).

Good news too for Investors as their sole unders wager paid off to leave the Unders/Overs Fund up by 30.6% on the season on a 14.2% ROI and 2.2 turn. That, compared with the Head-to-Head Fund's 9.2% loss (-4% ROI and 2.3 turn) and the Line Fund's 26.5% gain (17.9% ROI and 1.5 turn), left the Overall Portfolio up by 13% on a 6.7% ROI and 1.95 turn.

(NB A previous version of the tables had incorrect combined bet counts.)

If we break down the head-to-head and line bets on the basis of the home team in the games in which wagers were made, we find that head-to-head wagers were most lucrative when Melbourne (+16%), GWS (+7%), the Western Bulldogs (+6%), Adelaide (+5%) or Carlton (+5%) were the home team, and least lucrative when Port Adelaide (-14%), Brisbane Lions (-14%) or Gold Coast (-13%) were the home team.

For line bets, Essendon (+22%), the Western Bulldogs (+8%) and GWS (+6%) home games proved most lucrative, while Gold Coast (-5%) home games were most unprofitable.

Combined, Essendon (+10%), Melbourne (+7%), Western Bulldogs (+5%) and GWS (+5%) home games did most to increase the value of the Overall Portfolio, while Gold Coast (-7%), Port Adelaide (-7%) and Brisbane Lions (-7%) home games stripped the most from its value.

Flipping the analysis to look at the results by Away team, we have Gold Coast (+13%), Melbourne (+13%) and Carlton (+10%) as the Away teams associated with the greatest increases in the Head-to-Head Fund, and Sydney (-10%), Western Bulldogs (-9%), St Kilda (-8%), and GWS (-7%) the Away teams associated with the greatest losses.

On line betting, West Coast (+7%), Gold Coast (+7%) or Geelong (+6%) as the Away team was a good omen for Investors, Port Adelaide (-4%), Sydney (-3%) and Adelaide (-3%) all bad omens.

Combined, the highest returns were generated when Gold Coast (+8%), Melbourne (+6%) and Carlton (+6%) were the Away teams, and the lowest returns generated when Sydney (-5%) was the Away team.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

As already mentioned, MoSSBODS_Marg finished as the clear winner amongst MoS' Head-to-Head Tipsters. BKB finished 2nd, three tips behind, and C_Marg finished a clear 3rd, one tip further back.

So, both of the MoS Tipsters that relied on no Bookmaker input all season did about as well or better than the Bookmaker himself in tipping winners.

They did less well, however, as Margin Predictors, Bookie_Hcap, for example (whose margin prediction is simply the pre-game line market handicap) registering a mean absolute error (MAE) for the season about a quarter of a point per game below C_Marg's, and almost two-thirds of a point per game below MoSSBODS_Marg's.

At the top of the ladder, Bookie_LPSO held on for the win, finishing just 0.03 points per game better than RSMP_Simple. RSMP_Weighted finished a further 0.11 points per game behind RSMP_Simple in 3rd.

No Predictor's ranking changed as a result of the Grand Final outcome.

Only four Margin Predictors finished the season with a profitable line betting record (Bookie_LPSO, RSMP_Simple, C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg), while RSMP_Weighted, ENS_Greedy and ENS_Greedy_MoSS all essentially broke even.

Bookie_LPSO was the comfortable winner amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, Bookie_RE securing 2nd and Bookie_OE 3rd. MoSSBODS_Probs finished last, which partly explains the Head-to-Head Fund's loss for the season.