2016 - Round 25 (Finals Week 2) Results - Barking Up the Right Tree

Experience has taught me, more than once, that it's unwise to crow too loudly or too long when your statistical modelling approach has proven prescient. Nonetheless, history shows that simple stats modelling here on MoS has highlighted, for example, Freo's fatal flaws last year well before they bowed out of the Finals, and similarly has questioned the credentials of the Roos this season after they went 9 and 0.

And, most recently and relevantly, similar MoS models asterisked the credentials of the Hawks, even when they sat two games clear at the top of the ladder during the Home and Away season. Many, less statistically, more "gut feel" oriented followers of @MatterOfStats on Twitter had been unconvinced by this opinion and have been vociferous in their disbelief. They were, demonstrably, wrong.

Anyway, enough self-aggrandisement - onto the week's wagering results, which were a 1 and 0 performance by the Overs/Unders Fund that lifted the Overall Portfolio by 0.4c. That leaves it up now by 15c on the season, that result stemming from a 7.8% ROI on a 1.9 turn.

Really, all it would take for a perfect season from my point of view would be for the Head-to-Head Fund to drag itself back into profitability over the next two weeks.


MoSSBODS_Marg was this week the only Head-to-Head Tipster rooting for a Dogs win and, as a result, was the only Tipster to record a perfect 2 from 2 result. Every other Tipster bagged just 1 from 2 to leave the all-Tipster average at just 1.1 from 2.

MoSSBODS_Marg's triumph left it 2 tips clear of the field with just 3 games to go, making it hard to see any Tipster but it finishing in the top position. That's not bad for a first year performance. It's now on 151 from 204 (74%) for the season.

MoSSBODS_Marg also did well as a Margin Predictor, though C_Marg did better, finishing the round with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 24.8 points per game, some 4.5 points per game better than the all-Predictor average of 29.3 points.

Regardless, no Predictor changed rankings this week, which leaves Bookie_LPSO atop the field but leading by just under 11 points.

MoSSBODS also did well in the form of a Head-to-Head Probability Predictor, MoSSBODS_Prob recording the round's highest probability score, with C_Prob finishing 2nd. MoSSBODS_Prob and C_Prob were the only two Predictors recording positive probability scores for the round. Nonetheless, the ordering on the MoS Leaderboard remained unchanged. 

It's difficult to see other than Bookie_LPSO now finishing the season in 1st place.