2012 AFL Futures Markets After Round 19

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I've just reviewed the current TAB AFL Futures markets in light of the recent simulations I performed of the remainder of the season, and the only value bets at the moment (assuming you agree with the MARS Ratings I've used in the simulations) are: 

  • Geelong to Make the Final 8 : offers an estimated 6% edge at $1.10
  • Geelong to Make the Top 4 : offers an estimated 14% edge at $8
  • St Kilda to Miss the Top 8 : offers an estimated 11% edge at $1.40
  • GWS to Win the Spoon : offers an estimated 4% edge at $1.40

 

2012 Round 19 - Wagers & Tips : There's Always Hope On A Sunday

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One Head-to-Head, four SuperMargin and five Line bets comprise this week's wagering activity, collectively representing for Investors a best-case upside of about 22c and a worst-case downside of about 15c. Almost certainly the eventual outcome will be somewhere within those bounds - lightning not striking twice in the same place and all that - but that's still quite a range ...
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2012 Round 18 - Wagers & Tips : No Line's Formed for the Giants v Pies Game

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GWS play host to the Pies this weekend at the most traditional of football grounds, the Sydney Showground, and this matchup has, predictably, caused the TAB Bookmaker to pause. I imagine he's deciding whether or not to post a line market with a high two-figure handicap or, instead, with a three-figure handicap for the first time in who knows how long.

Right now he's still pausing, so we're still waiting.

We've already locked in two head-to-head, six line and four SuperMargin wagers spanning all but the Port v Freo game, so we're guaranteed a busy weekend whatever he comes up with, but we'll have one more wager on GWS should the line market be posted with the 100-or-so points start I'm expecting.

Until tomorrow then ...

2012 Round 17 - Wagers & Tips : A Measured Re-Engagement

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After MAFL weeks like last week - which, fortunately, have been infrequent during MAFL history - I'm torn between a desire to see the Funds regroup, reflect and recalibrate, and an unvoiced hope that they'll find genuine value in every market they see, wager heavily and tantalise with the promise of recouping all the losses they made in the previous week, and then more. As usual, what I get is somewhere in between.
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2012 Round 15 - Wagers & Tips : Soon ...

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I'm still waiting for the Head-to-Head and Line markets to be posted for the Hawks v Giants clash, so I'm deferring the posting of the Round 15 Wagers & Tips blog until tomorrow night.

Not, to be clear, that I expect we'll be nibbling at the Hawks head-to-head; if their opening price is $1.50 or more in that market it can only be because they've agreed to play the first quarter blind-folded. It is likely, however, that we'll be on the home-team Hawks in the Line market - certainly if they're only giving something like 99.5 start - so I've decided to wait until this market has been crystallised before I post all the details of the week's festivities.

As things stand I reckon we'll have no Head-to-Head bets, seven Line bets and four SuperMargin bets. More tomorrow.