2012 MARS, Colley, Massey and ODM Ratings After Round 14

Six teams had their MARS Ranking revised this week, none of them from the top 6 and none from the bottom 4. In every case, the re-ranking moved the team's MARS Ranking closer to its position on the competition ladder.

Amongst the teams in the upper-third of MARS Rankings, Hawthorn and Geelong remain as the teams whose Ranking differs most from their ladder position, with Hawthorn ranking 1st on MARS but 6th on the ladder, and Geelong ranking 3rd on MARS but 7th on the ladder. The TAB Bookmaker seems to agree with MARS' assessment of the Hawks, which he's installed on the 1st line of the Premiership market, if not with MARS' ranking of the Cats, which are on the 7th line of the TAB market.

Hawthorn's MARS Ranking is attributable, in part at least, to its more recent squirreling of Ratings Points (RPs). It's grabbed over 8 RPs from opponents since Round 8.

Next most acquisitive has been the Lions, who've netted just under 8 RPs, followed by the Pies (just under 7), then the Eagles, Swans and Dons (all about 5 each). Five other teams have been net acquirers of RPs over this period.

Meantime the Dogs have been the competition's type O blood group - the "universal donors" (and yes, I know I've done that joke before, but I've a new reader base so I thought it would be okay) - surrendering almost 15 RPs since Round 8.

Not far behind has been the Suns, who've given up almost 13 RPs to those teams lucky enough to be defending, generally more in concept than in practice, the goals opposite them.

Looking across all teams, compared to where we were at the end of Round 8 the Ratings gap between the teams Ranked 4th and 15th has extended a little, from 49.3 RPs to 51.0 RPs, while that between 4th and 8th has extended dramatically, from 6.8 RPs to 17.3 RPs.

One thing that has not changed since the end of Round 8 is the number of teams with a Rating above 1,000: it's still 9 teams, or exactly one half of the competition (though the Roos are currently Rated just one-tenth of a point below 1,000).

This week, the average game produced a Ratings exchange of 2.47 RPs, which is the fifth highest average RP exchange for any round this season. The highest average was 3.31 RPs per game and came in Round 7, a round that saw GWS win at $3.15, the Crows at $2.25, the Dogs at $3.05, and the Saints at $4.00. The next highest average was 3.08 RPs per game in Round 10. 

Round 5 produced the lowest average RP exchange this season at just 0.98 RPs per game. In that round, every favourite was successful, six of them at a price under $1.50. (On reflection, the average RP exchange for a round could be used as an alternative measure to the surprisals associated with a round's results.)

MARS' re-ranking of six teams this week contrasts with Colley's re-ranking of ten, Massey's re-ranking of seven, and ODM's re-ranking of just five.

St Kilda was re-ranked downwards by every Ratings System this week, while Adelaide was re-ranked upwards by every Ratings System except MARS, and Carlton was re-ranked downwards by every Ratings System except MARS. Richmond, oddly, was re-ranked downwards by two Ratings Systems and upwards by the other two.

Teams for which at least two Ratings Systems have vastly different opinions are Adelaide, ranked 2nd by Colley and 9th by MARS; Collingwood, ranked 5th by Massey and ODM, but 1st by Colley and 2nd by MARS; Geelong, ranked 3rd by MARS, 7th by Colley, 9th by Massey, and 10th by ODM; and the Roos, ranked 10th by Colley and MARS, but 12th by Massey and ODM.

Though the Ratings Systems differ about each team's current ranking, they broadly agree about whether a team should be ranked higher or lower now than it was at the end of Round 4. In particular, at least 3 of the 4 Ratings Systems agree that: 

  • Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn and Richmond should be ranked higher now
  • Carlton, Fremantle, Kangaroos, Port Adelaide and St Kilda should be ranked lower now
  • Brisbane, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs should be ranked similarly to how they were at the end of Round 4

Opinion differs more substantially about the change in rankings for Sydney and West Coast where we find some Ratings Systems having higher rankings, and others having lower or identical rankings now to that which they had at the end of Round 4.

This week we'll finish with a look at ODM's Offensive and Defensive Rankings for each team.

As you can see, for most teams their Offensive and Defensive Ranking is similar to its Aggregate Ranking. 

There are six exceptions, three whose Offensive Ranking is substantially below its Defensive Ranking (Carlton, Fremantle and Sydney), and three whose Defensive Ranking is substantially below its Offensive Ranking (Essendon, Kangaroos and St Kilda).

Some support for this assessment comes from the current Team Dashboard, in particular from the Scoring Shot data, in which we find that Fremantle and Sydney are far higher ranked on Scoring Shots Conceded per Game than they are on Scoring Shots Created per Game, and that the Roos, Saints and, to a lesser extent, Dons are higher ranked on Scoring Shots Created per Game than they are on Scoring Shots Conceded per Game.