2012 Round 20 - Wagers & Tips : SuperMargin Sweepstakes

We've 14 wagers this weekend, half of them in SuperMargin markets - not, I know, the favoured wager type for many MAFL Investors - five in Line markets, and just two Head-to-Head. Combined, they represent a little under 20% of the Fund and cover all nine contests.

The week starts with a small head-to-head wager on the Eagles, at home to the Cats and priced as equal-favourites at $1.90. At that price, the Head-to-Head Fund recommends about a 2.4% wager, which in the grand scheme of things won't make much difference to Overall Portfolios whichever way it ends.

In Saturday's game at the G we have the first of seven SuperMargin wagers on consecutive games, as well as the first of five Line wagers. Unfortunately, in this game, both those bets can't win.

The same is true for the wagers on the Spoon Bowl later that day where we have the Suns -17.5 on Line betting, and the Suns winning by only between 1 and 9 points on SuperMargin wagering, and for the pair of bets we have on the Hawks v Port game on Sunday, where we need the Hawks either to win in a canter or to go perilously close to losing. It's only in the Tigers v Dogs game where we could enjoy collects on a Line and on a SuperMargin wager.

There is one other game where we could be doubly happy though, the Swans v Pies game, where a Swans win by between 10 and 19 points would land our Head-to-Head and our SuperMargin wagers.

Such twin payouts in either the Swans v Pies or the Tigers v Dogs games would be lucrative, each lifting Overall Portfolios by about 4 or 5 cents, but the standout result would be for the Hawks to defeat Port Adelaide by between 10 and 19 points which, priced at $26, would increase the value of Overall Portfolios by over 10c, notwithstanding that the success of this wager would imply the failure of the Line bet on the same game.

Most other games offer best-case returns of between about 2 and 3 cents, while worst-case losses for all games are generally in the 2.5 to 3 cent range.

Head-to-Head Tipsters are, Home Sweet Home aside, unanimous in their support for the favourites in the last five games of the round, but they're split for the remaining four games. Surprisingly, the Saints v Dees game, where the Saints are 48.5 point favourites on the TAB, sees a slim majority of Tipsters opting for the underdog Dees, though not even Home Sweet Home can be convinced to follow that line of thinking.

In the Suns v Giants clash majority support is also with the underdogs, here in the shape of GWS, following up after a shock defeat of Port Adelaide. Home Sweet Home isn't buying this upset either, however.

Meantime the Margin Predictors are their usual like-minded selves, with only Combo_NN_1 breaking ranks in two games, and Combo_NN_2, ProPred_3 and ProPred_7 doing the same in just one game (and barely).

The Combo_NN_1 prediction of a Cats win by 25 points is made all the more intriguing when you realise that the five Predictors that provide its inputs all tip an Eagles win or draw. Such is the curious and unfathomable behaviour that neural networks can throw up - they're certainly not just a linear combination of their inputs.

Looking across the set of predictions, five games appear capable of producing narrow margins of victory: Eagles v Cats, Crows v Freo, Suns v Giants, Swans v Pies, and Dons v Roos. In each of these games at least one Predictor is tipping a single-digit final margin.

Finally, to the Probability Predictors. Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, WinPred is an outlier in its assessment of a number of contests this week, rating West Coast, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Carlton and Richmond as better prospects than do most other Predictors, especially the TAB, and rating St Kilda and Essendon as lesser chances.

The Line Fund algorithm rates the Saints, Suns, Hawks and Tigers as better than 60% chances of winning on Line betting, and also leans strongly towards the Lions and the Dons.