Investors can look forward to a much quieter round this week - we've got a whole game to watch bet-free and three, arguably four more games that don't matter much whichever way they finish. The diminished activity has two sources. Firstly, the Head-to-Head Fund has found only two Home teams that it fancies: St Kilda, facing Geelong, which it likes just a little, attracted presumably by the $3.75 on offer; and Carlton, facing the Swans, which it's downright infatuated with at $1.25. Secondly, the Line Fund has only five wagers this week. It wanted three more but, while performing an analysis of the Line Fund's performance for an upcoming blog on the Statistical Analyses journal, I was struck by the historical and current-season asymmetry in the Fund's profitability when wagering on Home teams, where it's been profitable, and Away teams, where it hasn't. That led me to review this blog from earlier in the season where I'd noted that the Line Fund would wager only on Home teams this year, a conclusion I'd reached after a thorough and careful analysis of the Line Fund's performance during which I'd noted the asymmetry in ... well, you get the picture. Anyway, the Line Fund's been wagering on Away teams for 12 rounds in complete breach of its Terms & Conditions, which stops as of now. I'll be enforcing the no-Away team wager rule for the Fund from this round onwards.

This week on MARS Ratings Carlton and Hawthorn swapped 3rd and 4th, the Roos and Melbourne traded 11th and 12th, while the Eagles, Dogs, Fremantle and Essendon took part in a more elaborate position dance that saw the Dogs drop 1 spot to 8th, the Dons drop 2 places to 10th, Fremantle pick up 1 spot to move into 9th, and the Eagles claim 2 spots to leap to 7th.

Investors survived another round sprinkled with hold-your-breath matchups - due mostly to the profligacy of the Head-to-Head Fund - to emerge almost 7% richer on the tail end of a 70% success rate from the week's wagers.

It's weeks like this that I'm struck by the difference between the lack of emotion in the Fund algorithms' behaviour and that I'd expect from fellow humans.

This year, with an odd number of participants, teams have had to deal with byes and, generally, they've not dealt with them well.

It's still all Collingwood and Geelong atop the MARS Ratings leaderboard as these two teams have now established a 20 Ratings Point gap on the rest of the field.

So far this season leading at the end of the first quarter, or even at half-time, hasn't been as comforting for the leading team as it was last season.

Doubtless I should be unhappier. I certainly was late on Friday night after the Dons had capitulated to the Dees, immolating over 12% of Investor Portfolios in the process, and I was again mid Sunday afternoon as the Hawks slipped nearly 5 goals behind Freo late in the 3rd term, threatening to lay waste to another 8%.

The phrase "upset victory" will not be a welcome one for Investors this weekend who face unusually large head-to-head wagers on three short-priced favourites in Essendon, Geelong and the Hawks, and another uncomfortably largeish punt on the Pies.

Just five movers on the MARS Ratings ladder this week, 2 ups and 3 downs. St Kilda were the big climbers, up 3 places into 5th spot on the back of the 4.2 Ratings Points they gained from their 46-point win over Freo. The Lions were the other team to rise, up 1 spot to 14th having snatched 4.5 Ratings Points from Adelaide. The three teams to fall were the Dogs, down 2 places to 7th after surrendering 2.5 Ratings Points to Hawthorn; Sydney down 1 place to 8th; and Richmond down 1 place to 15th after they shed 2.4 Ratings Points in a surprise - and, for Investors, painful - loss to Port Adelaide.

Investors might recall that, in the opening paragraph of the blog describing the wagers we had for Round 10 I noted how closely our fortunes were tied to those of the Home Sweet Home heuristic. Well, Home Sweet Home registered just one correct tip for the round

Investors will be hoping that Home Sweet Home bags a hatful this weekend. If the only home team loser for the round is Gold Coast, their Portfolios will rise by over 25%. With reward though, generally comes risk, and if the results are all contrary to Investor wishes, Portfolios will fall by 30%.

Action was again confined to the middle sections of the MARS Ladder this week, with the teams from 4th through 12th collectively registering 3 rises and 4 falls. Carlton and Essendon, despite losing, rose by 1 spot thanks to significant losses by the Swans and the Dogs. Indeed, so large was the Dogs' defeat that their opponents, the Eagles, climbed 3 ladder positions as a consequence. Other falls were recorded by the Crows, down 2 spots to 11th, and the Dees, down 1 spot to 12th.

Richmond and Hawthorn brightened what was an otherwise fairly dull weekend for Investors, though a typo in my Ready Reckoner for the Port Adelaide v Fremantle game meant that the total loss was only just over 3% for the round and not 5% as the Ready Reckoner suggested. The Head-to-Head Fund landed 2 or 4 wagers, jumping 4% in the process to move back into profitability for the first time since Round 1. The Line Fund managed just 3 from 8, however, shedding a tick over 10% to leave it down just over 13% for the season and leaving Portfolios down 5.7% for the season.

In this round, more than any before it this season, the terms "Home" and "Away" really mean something. For seven of the week's eight contests the designated Home team has at least 7 games more venue experience than their opponents, and in six of the games the Away team has played at the venue on no more than 3 occasions in the past year. Only Essendon has any right to feel that it's meeting its opponent on anything close to neutral territory and even then it has only half the venue experience of the Home team.

All the action on MARS Ratings last weekend happened amongst the teams in positions 3rd through 11th. First and second positions remain unchanged despite second-placed Geelong's victory over Collingwood, the 12th-placed Eagles and 13th-placed Roos both won but failed to gain enough Ratings Points to catch those ahead of them, and the teams in positions 14th through 17th all lost in a manner sufficient to preserve their rankings.

Do you recognise this set of numbers: +14, -24, -14, -3, +3, -32, +34, +12? It's the quarter-time margins for each of this round's winning teams which, as you can see, are negative for half of the winners and significantly negative for two of them.

For the first time since Round 5, both the Head-to-Head and the Line Fund have failed to find value in a contest. It's the Brisbane v Essendon clash on Saturday that's bereft of financial interest, and represents the first time this season that Investors have not had a wager in a contest involving the Lions. (It's the third time, however, that a Dons clash has gone unwagered upon.)

Nine teams' ranking on MARS Ratings changed as a result of last weekend's contests, four moving up by a spot or three, and five moving down by a spot or two.

The Saints on Monday night came so close to punishing the Blues for their waywardness in front of goal and turning a good Round for Investors into a great one but, in the end, St Kilda fell just short, securing the Line Fund bet but not the Head-to-Head Fund wager, leaving the Head-to-Head Fund down just over 5% on the weekend and the Line Fund up just over 15%.