2011 Round 11: Best Read Seated

The phrase "upset victory" will not be a welcome one for Investors this weekend who face unusually large head-to-head wagers on three short-priced favourites in Essendon, Geelong and the Hawks, and another uncomfortably largeish punt on the Pies.

In comparison, the remaining head-to-head wager on the Lions represents pure insignificance.

The Line Fund wants more than mere victories by these same four teams - it also wants them to cover their respective spreads, in particular the Dons and the Pies on which the stakes are, literally, the highest. One other line bet, that on Carlton giving 29.5 point start, is also financially important, while two more on West Coast, giving the Suns 65.5 points start, and Adelaide, receiving 12.5 points start from the Roos, are much less troubling.

This portfolio of wagers comes with scant opportunities for sizeable profit but with a veritable fruitbarn full of banana skins.

The major upside attaches to a Dons win on Friday night sufficient to cover their 26.5 point spread, and to a Pies win on Saturday by a margin of 29 points or more. Smaller profits would accrue from spread-covering wins by the Cats, Lions, Hawks and Blues.

Abject terror lurks in the prospect of victories (or even draws) for the Dees, Dogs, Saints or Dockers. Even a Saints loss by less than 29 points would be unpleasant. A few other results would also lead to losses in percentage terms with a 1 in front of them (but thankfully a decimal point immediately after).

Cover your eyes if you're at all squeamish at the sight of (metaphorical) blood.


Okay, you can open them again now.

Our Head-to-Head Tipsters are only arguing in any significant numbers about the outcome of the Lions v Swans game, where they're split 7-6 in favour of the Swans, and the Roos v Crows game, where they're split 7-6 again, this time in favour of the Crows. In four other games they're unanimous, and they're split 12-1 and 11-2 in the remaining two contests.

Remarkably, the Margin Predictors are unanimous and backing the favourites in 7 of the 8 contests. The exception is the Lions v Swans game, where there is no favourite, and where the Margin Predictors are heavily backing the Lions to prevail. (Note that Bookie_3 is predicting a draw in this game and Combo_7 might as well be.)

Their opinions on the outcomes of the line betting contest are also generally definitive. Twelve of the 13 expect Essendon, the Pies, the Hawks and Port to be victorious on line betting, 11 of the 13 expect Adelaide to do the same, and all 13 expect that the Gold Coast will do enough to avoid getting beaten by 11 goals. In the other two contests they're split 9-4 in favour of the Cats and the Lions.

A quick look at the manhattan distances this week reveals some larger distances between the Bookie pair/Combo trio on one side, and the ProPred, WinPred and H2H families on the other.

Comparing this week's distances to the average per game distance across the season, we see that ProPred_3 and ProPred_7 in particular are even more different this week than than usually are.

Finally, to the Probability Predictors where we find unusually high levels of agreement amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors and a pair of extraordinarily confident line betting calls by the Line Fund. It reckons the Dons to be 74% chances to cover their 26.5 points spread, and the Pies to be 84% chances to cover their 28.5 points spread, which are two of three most confident calls it's made all season.