2011 Round 12 Results: Halfway, Decent

Investors survived another round sprinkled with hold-your-breath matchups - due mostly to the profligacy of the Head-to-Head Fund - to emerge almost 7% richer on the tail end of a 70% success rate from the week's wagers.

The Head-to-Head Fund won 4 of 6 wagers across the weekend to rise by 1.2% while the Line Fund landed 3 of 4 to rise by 12.1%, leaving the Head-to-Head Fund down by just under 37% on the season and the Line Fund up by over 4%, the first time it's been in profit since Round 1. Combined, Investor Portfolios are now trading at just under 84c.

We've now reached the halfway point of the home-and-away season so it's time to take another look at which teams have been making us money and which have been losing it.

Firstly, here's our record for each team when we've wagered on them:

In head-to-head wagering it's been Geelong, Collingwood and Carlton that have done most to bolster the shareprice, and Essendon, Richmond, Gold Coast, Brisbane and St Kilda that have done most to depress it (and me).

Collingwood, Geelong and Carlton have also, along with the Eagles, done most to boost the Line Fund's price, whilst Melbourne, St Kilda and Essendon have set about keeping it anchored.

Looking at each team instead from the viewpoint of our wagering against them we have this:


Through this lens Investors in the Head-to-Head Fund should thank Adelaide, the Dogs and Essendon for losing when we needed it most, and should curse Melbourne, Carlton, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn for doing the opposite. As well, line betting success has been helped by timely losses from Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, St Kilda and the Dogs, and hurt by unexpected wins from the Eagles, Melbourne and Richmond.

On tipping, with all eight favourites winning and with many tipsters mostly agreeing with BKB this week, the Head-to-Head Tipsters fared well, averaging 7 from 8 and making Round 12 collectively the best round yet for these Tipsters.

Bookie_9 and Combo_NN_1 lead all tipsters on 67.5 from 93 (73%), one tip ahead of BKB on 66.5 (72%). Home Sweet Home remains in last position and is now on 53.5 (58%), suffering from yet another mediocre round for home teams which saw only 5 of them victorious.

Margin predicting also proved relatively easy this week, with only the blowout win by the Pies in the final game of the round inflating the all-predictor MAPE to 31.75 points per game for the round, the sixth-highest round average of the season. Bookie_3 was once again the best performer, this week recording an MAPE of 24.71 points per game to give it a season average of 27.88 points per game, over 1 point per game better than Combo_7 in second, which recorded the week's second-best performance at 26.73 points per game.

All Margin Predictors are now showing at least a mild home-team bias in their season-long margin predictions, most notably the Win, H2H and ProPred families of Predictors.

The Margin Predictors proved no help on line betting this week - unless you were prescient enough to know that a contrarian approach was required - averaging only 1.9 correct line predictions per tipster, the second-lowest average for the season. Bookie_3 remains as the Margin Predictor with the best line prediction record. Bookie_3 notwithstanding, the general correlation between all Margin Predictors' MAPE and line betting performances remains low. It's just -0.4 meaning that only about 16% of the variability of the two metrics is common.

All 5 Head-to-Head Probability Tipsters recorded positive probability scores for the round dragging them all further away from the chance level of zero. WinPred had the best round but the ordering of the 5 remained unchanged.

The Line Fund algorithm also recorded a positive probability score for the round, its fourth in the most recent six rounds, and continues to threaten (from below) a zero season-long performance.