2026 - Team Ratings After Round 28 (Week 5 of the Finals)

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of all four Preliminary Finalists this week, lifting Fremantle into 1st and Brisbane Lions into 4th, and dropping Sydney into 3rd and Hawthorn into 5th.

MARS swapped only Brisbane Lions and Sydney, elevating the former into 2nd and dropping the latter into 4th.

That left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney, and MARS with Geelong, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS has 10 teams rated as above average with the Saints and Suns falling just below the cutoff.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Swans, while on defence it still has a Top 3 of Dockers, Hawks, and Blues. Thirteen teams are rated as above average on offence but only six on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.76 standard deviations (up) and defensive ratings a range of 1.19 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.48 and that for defensive ratings 0.32.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.667, which is down on last week.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS has only 10 teams rated better-than-average, with Collingwood missing out by just over 2 Rating Points.

As noted earlier, it has a different Top 3 to MoSHBODS, and, most importantly, rates Brisbane Lions higher than Fremantle.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 2.7 Rating Points (down), from 1st to 4th, 8.9 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 38.2 Rating Points (no change).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 91.4 Rating Points (no change), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 29.8 Rating Points (down).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.987 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.024 times its MARS Rating less 24.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of six teams, but differ by as much as two spots about only seven teams, including a three spot difference for GWS, and a four spot difference for Fremantle.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.948.