2026 - Round 29 (Finals Week 5) : Three Lions - Is It Coming Home?

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It’s 1st plays 3rd in the Grand Final for the seventh time since 2000, with teams from 1st currently enjoying a 4-2 lead.

That said, against all opponents in that timeframe, teams from 3rd have registered 8 wins and 5 losses compared to teams from 1st’s record of 9 wins and 9 losses.

Looking across all weeks of the Finals we see that teams from 1st have better records than teams from 3rd in Qualifying Finals, Semi Finals, and Preliminary Finals.

(As an aside we also see the parlous record of teams from 4th, only three of which have made Grand Finals with six going out in straight sets in a Semi Final, and 18 falling in a Preliminary Final,)

To this week, then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are just three contrarian tips this week, with one each from Home Sweet Home, Consult the Ladder, and, importantly, MoSHBODS_Marg.

With ENS_Linear tipping the favourites, Bookie Knows Best becomes unassailable on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors the margin forecast range is 11 points, with Bookie_3 and MoSHBODS_Marg defining the ends.

Amongst the Probability Predictors the probability forecast range is 11 percentage points with MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_RE here providing the Extreme Predictions.

Bookie_LPSO currently leads RSMP_Weighted by 24 points at the top of the Leaderboard and the absolute difference in their forecast is only about 3 points, which means that Bookie_LPSO will finish top of the Margin Predictors Leaderboard.

For MoSHPlay_Prob to take top spot from Bookie_LPSO on the Probability Predictor Leaderboard, it would need to attach a probability of around 75% or more to Fremantle and they would need to win. Bookie_LPSO almost certainly wins this one too, then.









MoSHBODS’ GRAND FINAL RECORD

Before looking at this week’s wagering let’s first see how MoSHBODS has performed in recent Grand Finals.

We find that, since 2000, it’s tipped 57% of the winners with a margin MAE of 37.4 points per game and a totals MAE of 17 points per game. Blowout victories, particularly in recent years, has helped bump up that margin MAE.

From the columns on the far right we can also say that, based on MoSHBODS’ team ratings;

  • Where there is a team rated higher than their opponents on defence and on offence they have won 64% of the time

  • Where one team is rated higher than their opponents on either defence or offence and rated lower on the other dimension, the team rated higher on offence has won 60% of the time

In the 2026 Grand Final, Brisbane Lions has the higher offensive rating and Fremantle the higher defensive rating.

WAGERS

It’s always a concern that the Grand Final will go unwagered upon, but there’s no cause for such concern this year as MoSHBODS has made Investors firm Fremantle supporters this week with moderately sized head-to-head and line wagers on the Dockers.

(Please click on the image at right to access a larger version.)

Here are the possible wagering outcomes for the Combined Portfolio:

  • Fremantle win: 25% x 1.3 x 3.2% + 65% x 0.9 x 3.6% = +3.1c

  • Fremantle lose by 8 points or less: +1.3c

  • Fremantle lose by 9 points or more: -3.1c

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.