2026 - Round 29 (Week 4 of the Finals): Overs/Unders

The bookmakers are expecting a slightly lower score in the Grand Final than is MoSHBODS, although that might be partly attributable to the forecast rain.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied overs, of course, but was vetoed by the rain rule.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for all Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins and Home Team Scores. That allowed the TAB to retake the season-long lead on Game Margins but left the leadership for the three other metrics unchanged.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet and 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 0.4 points ahead of the TAB and 11 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 7 points ahead of the TAB, and 81 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 223 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was only a single bet last weekend, a unsuccessful overs wager with the TAB. That left MoSHBODS at 26 and 22 against the TAB and 13 and 10 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in one of the two games this week, taking its record against the TAB to 104 from 217 (48%) for the season, and Sportsbet to 101 from 217 (47%) for the season.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.