2026 - Round 17 : A Lot More Action

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We’re spoiled with a return to a full round of nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, two by about four-and-a-half goals, and one by about six goals.

Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.1 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 26.8 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 19.2 points per game, about one-point-and-a-half below last week’s average.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has four contrarian tips this week, and is joined only by Consult the Ladder, who has two, in different games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in six games this week, most notably 17 points in the Richmond v Carlton, and Hawthorn v Melbourne clashes, and 15 points in the West Coast v Adelaide, and Essendon v St Kilda clashes.

Bookie_Hcap, Bookie_9. and MoSHBODS_Marg are Extreme Predictor in four games each this week. No other Predictor is Extreme in more than two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are three games with a double-digit forecast range, the most noteable being 12% points in the Hawthorn v Melbourne game.

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictors in six games this week, MARS_Prob in five, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

After a few relatively quiet weeks, MoSHBODS has exploded and found value all over the place this week.

It has locked Investors into four head-to-head wagers totalling just over 15% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and six line wagers totalling just under 13% of the original Line Fund. No potential bet was vetoed by an excluding rule.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, a Ready Reckoner is very much in order.

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by just over 9c, worst case a decrease by just over 12c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.