2026 - Round 10 : Subdued

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This week’s nine games includes four that are expected to be decided by about 20 points or less, three more that are expected to be decided by between about 20 and 30 points, and two more that are expected to be decided by about six or seven goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 26.1 points per game.

There are only four away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25 points per game, and five home team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 26.9 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are only four contrarian tips this week, and those are from Home Sweet Home for the four home team underdogs.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in six games this week, most notably 17 points in the Essendon v Fremantle clash.

Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 are Extreme Predictors in five games each this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, none of the nine games has a double-digit percentage point forecast range.

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in seven games this week, and Bookie_LPSO and MARS_Prob in five games each.

WAGERS

Astute readers will have noted the high levels of agreement between tipsters and the bookmakers this week, which unsurpisingly has dampened wagering, not because of any Too Good To Be True vetoing, but because of too small to be interesting estimated values.

In the end Investors finished with two head-to-head bets topping and tailing the round and totalling just 1.5% of the original Head to Head Fund, and two line bets totalling just under 1.5% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Below is a Ready Reckoner that shows the returns that will accrue to different possible outcomes in each game.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.