2026 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders

/

If MoSHBODS won’t go to the bookmakers …

MoSHBODS’ average total this week is only two points below the bookmakers’, but that’s come about from the latter lowering their expectations to 181 points per game, down a full goal per game on last week. MoSHBODS is actually forecasting a higher score than the bookmakers in three games, albeit that two of those might be slightly rain-affected.

There’s complete agreement this week about everything but the likely highest scoring game:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Game

  • All: Gold Coast v Port Adelaide

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: St Kilda

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

A number of MoSHBODS’ forecasts are in the Goldilocks range this week of being sufficiently different from the bookmakers’ without being too different. As a result, there are wagers in five games, including two overs wagers where rain is forecast, but only 0-1mm’s worth.

The three other wagers are all unders bets, with two more unders bets having been prohibited by the TGTBT rule.

The estimated overlays in the games with overs bets are about 2.5 and 7 points, and those in the games with unders bets from about 3 to 6 points.

The practice of making unders bets only with sufficiently small overlays is affirmed by the table at left that shows the accuracy of MoSHBODS on totals betting across different overlays.

There you can see that, in games where the overlay on an unders bet with the TAB is less than 6 points, MoSHBODS is on the right side 54% of the time.

The table provides no justification for overs betting with small overlays, but the sample size is tiny.

Vindication of the veto rules is provided by the table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

That said, last week the veto rules did prevent what would otherwise have been quite a profitable set of wagers.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw Sportsbet and the TAB take joint mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins, and MoSHBODS take them for all other metrics. That saw the TAB retain season-long leadership on Game Margins, but lose it to Sportsbet on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores. Sportsbet also retained outright leadership on Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet and 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 13 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB, and 41 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 132 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were no bets last weekend, which left MoSHBODS at 7 and 7 against the TAB and at 0 and 1 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 6 of the 9 games last week. It is now 41 from 81 (51%) against the TAB, and 39 from 81 (48%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.