2025 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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MoSSBODS moved only two teams this week, swapping GWS into 11th at the expense of Carlton, while MoSHBODS moved eight teams, which included moving Geelong into 2nd and slipping Adelaide into third, thereby aligning the two Systems’ Top 3 as Dogs, Cats, and Crows.

The multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS were Collingwood and Brisbane Lions, both slipping two spots, and Hawthorn, climbing three spots.

Overall, MoSSBODS now has 10 teams rated as above average as does MoSHBODS 10, with MoSHBODS allowing GWS into the set and excluding Sydney, relative to MoSSBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.987 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.96 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Cats, and Crows. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Hawks, Pies, and Crows, while MoSHBODS now has Hawks, Crows, and Pies.

MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has only 10 (dropping Sydney). On defence, MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has 10 (dropping Melbourne).

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.66 standard deviations (which is a bit wider) and defensive ratings a range of 1.33 standard deviations (which is narrower). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.76 standard deviations (which is wider) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.3 standard deviations (which is narrower).

Standard deviations tell a similar story, with those for offensive ratings 0.47 for MoSSBODS and 0.48 for MoSHBODS, and those for defensive ratings 0.4 for MoSSBODS and 0.38 for MoSHBODS

At this point, then, teams are more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive,

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and two more are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.76, which is down a little compared to last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 22s. Note that some of the earlier years had fewer than 22 home and away rounds and so do not appear here.

Three teams remain above the median for the Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final: Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and Adelaide. Western Bulldogs is still the only one to have broken into the top decile.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked only six teams this week, including swapping the Cats back into 2nd ahead of the Crows, moving the Hawks up two spots into 4th, and dropping the Pies two places into 6th.

Further down, the only other move was to slip GWS into 8th ahead of Fremantle.

Just under 24 Rating Points now separates 1st from 9th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 19 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 22 last season, the gap between 1st and 9th was just over 17 Rating Points, or roughly 13 points. Brisbane Lions was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,027.4, Carlton were 9th on 1,010.1, and North Melbourne were last on 950.5.

There are still 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, after which there remains a very large gap to Melbourne’s 995.4.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Fremantle

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (ignoring MARS)

All three Systems this week provide exactly four outlying rankings.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 10 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about 12, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about 10.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Melbourne and GWS still have the widest range of rankings alone at three spots, and that there are four other teams whose rankings span more than a single spot.

There are also eight teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast and Western Bulldogs.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little further apart in terms of their rankings this week, as shown by the rank correlations below:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.971 (was +0.975)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.979 (was +0.992)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.979 (was +0.996)