2025 - Round 22 Results - Hopefully Habit-Forming
/In a season where favouritism has been particularly predictive, it’s not surprising that seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled with the continued low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of seven, excepting Home Sweet Home’s three.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 131.9 from 188 (70%).
Margin prediction was, on average, around 5 points per game easier than last week, and easiest of all for Bookie_9, whose mean average error (MAE) of 21.4 points per game was over two points per game better than next best, RSMP_Weighted’s 23.5 points per game. Bookie_3 recorded the worst MAE this week at 32.3 points per game.
The all-Predictor average was 25.5 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 26.3 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows ENS_Linear maintaining the outright lead, but Bookie_3 sliding to 5th, and allowing MoSHPlay_Marg to shimmy into 2nd place, and Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_Hcap to both rise by one spot.
In other moves, Bookie_9 rebounded into 6th place.
Log probability scores were all very positive again this week, but best for with Bookie_RE and worst for MoSSBODS_Prob.
At the end of it all, MoSHPlay_Prob remains in 1st, Bookie_LPSO in 2nd, and Bookie_RE in 3rd.
WAGERING
Another Combined Portfolio profit this week, as all three contributing Funds finished in the black for the first time since Round 8.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished up by another 5.2c, doubling its season profit to 10.4c, that from a +5% ROI on a 2.06 turn.
