2025 - Round 23 : All To Play For

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Save for the last game of the round, which looks likely to make a strong case for a mercy rule in AFL, it’s a fairly good looking set of games on offer this week. Six are expected to be won by around 3 goals or less, and two more by around 4 goals, which you think might provide some forecasters with an opportunity to be bold contrarians.

Let’s see.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Nope. Only Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder in two games each, and MoSSBODS_Marg in a single game have opted for other than the favourites yet again.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in all five games, most notably 29 points in the Dogs v Eagles clash, 19 points in the Dons v Saints clash, and 18 points in the Suns v Giants matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in four games this week, and Bookie_3, Bookie_9, and ENS_Linear in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range, most notably 16% points in the Roos v Tiger game, and 14% points in the Dons v Saints game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in eight games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in four games.

WAGERS

Shenanigans were at low levels this week, with evidence only in the Suns v Giants game where wanted 3.7% on the Suns -12.5 @ $1.92 and ended up with only 1.3% at that price and another 2.3% at $1.90.

In total, Investors have wagers in five line markets totalling just under 13% of the original Line Fund in sizes ranging from 0.6% on Sydney to 5.2% on Essendon.

Those line bets are joined by five head-to-head wagers totalling just under 10% of the original Line Fund in sizes ranging from 0.9% on Sydney to 3.9% on Gold Coast.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Essendon carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a 26-point and a 25-point loss represents 6.4% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Gold Coast carry 5.9% risk, Western Bulldogs 2.7%, Adelaide 1.7%, Sydney 1.5%, Richmond 1.4%, and Melbourne 1.3%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 10c, while a worst case set would snip just under 11c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.