The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a small 1.5 points per game, and there is only one game where the difference exceeds 3 points. Overall, the twins have roughly the same average expected total, and that average is 3 to 4 points below the bookmakers’.

There is a lot more disagreement this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams, with consensus on all but the Lowest Scoring Game.

Highest Scoring Game

All: Western Bulldogs v West Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Essendon v St Kilda
Bookmakers: Hawthorn v Melbourne (equal with Adelaide v Collingwood for Sportsbet)

Highest Scoring Team

All: Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Team

All: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS found three more wagers this week, all of them unders.

The overlays in the three games in play are between about 7 and 12.5 points, and the wagers between 2.7% and 5.7% accordingly. We were also very close to a wager in the Swans v Cats game where the overlay is just over 6 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSSBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and MoSHBODS do the same for Game Totals and Away Team Scores.

MoSHBODS, despite not finishing top on the metric this week, did enough to wrest the season-long title for Away Team Scores away from the TAB. The TAB still retains the season-long lead for all other metrics, however.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, 132 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 297 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 0.2 points ahead of the TAB, 24 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 103 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 41 points ahead of Sportsbet, 107 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 171 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 27 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 82 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Across the season, the overall results by metric have been:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 8.5 round wins (including 1 tie), TAB 8.5 round wins (including 1 tie), MoSSBODS 6 round wins, MoSHBODS 3 round wins
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 9 round wins, MoSSBODS 5 round wins, TAB 5 round wins (including 2 ties), Sportsbet 4 round wins (including 2 ties)
Away Team Scores: TAB 11.5 round wins (including 1 tie), MoSSBODS 6 round wins, MoSHBODS 4 round wins, Sportsbet 1.5 round wins (including 1 tie)
Game Totals: TAB 9 round wins (including 4 ties), MoSHBODS 8 round wins, MoSSBODS 4 round wins, Sportsbet 2 round wins (including/comprising 4 ties)

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, two successful unders wagers with the TAB, and one successful overs wager with Sportsbet, which left MoSSBODS with a 16 and 15 season-long record against the TAB, and a 7 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 6 games last week, and on the right side of Sportsbet in just 5 games. MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 7 games.

That takes MoSSBODS to 93 from 188 (50%) against the TAB and 94 from 188 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 108 from 188 (57%) against the TAB and Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.