2025 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

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Just for a little variety, this week the Totals markets went up in three tranches across about 75 minutes on Tuesday, at the end of which we find the MoS twins once again more bearish about scoring in almost every game than are the bookmakers.

Those two bookmakers are, on average, forecasting Totals about 4 points higher than the twins, albeit that the twins themselves again have some disagreements on individual games, which this week only are as large as 5 points and mostly are around 1 to 3 points.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are quite different this week with the exception of which will be the lowest-scoring team:

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Port Adelaide v North Melbourne

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: St Kilda v Brisbane Lions

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Collingwood v Essendon

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Undaunted by a brutal second-to-last second loss on the weekend, MoSSBODS has found four more markets to love this week, opting for unders wagers again in all four.

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from about 7 to 16 points, and the wager sizes from 2.5% to 6.7% accordingly.

Altogether, the wagers represent just over 15% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was a good one for MoSSBODS as it took overall honours for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores, while the TAB did the same for Game Totals.

The TAB now holds the season-long top spot on all four measures having this week wrested Game Totals away from Sportsbet.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB 1 point ahead of MoSHBODS and 9 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 5 points ahead of Sportsbet and 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: the TAB less than 1 point ahead of MoSHBODS and 8 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 61 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 79 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were four bets last week: a win and a loss with Sportsbet on unders, and two losses with the TAB also on unders. That left MoSSBODS with a 2 and 7 season-long performance against the TAB, and a 2 and 1 season-long perfomance against Sportsbet.

Overall, both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were on the right side of the Total 5 times in 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet.

That takes MoSSBODS to 23 from 53 (43%) against the TAB and Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 28 from 53 (52%) against the TAB, and 27 from 53 (50%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following chart.