2025 - Round 7 : Into The Swing

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Nine more games this week, with five of them expected to be decided by about two goals or less, two of them by around four or five goals, one by around six goals, and one more by around nine goals.

Those larger expected margins will hopefully make head-to-head tipping a little easier than last week.

Let’s see what the models make of it all.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s only a little contrarianism this week, with Home Sweet Homes’ and Consult the Ladder’s two games each topped up with one game each from the RSMP twins and the MoS twins.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in seven games, most notably 30 points in the Giants v Dogs clash, 26 points in the Power v Roos clash, and 18 points in the Hawks v Eagles matchup.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg in only four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 32% points (sic) in the Giants v Dogs game, 16% points in the Dees v Tigers game, and 14% points in the Dockers v Crows fixture.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

Both the Head-to=Head and Line Funds are very active this week, with the Head-to-Head Fund opting for five wagers, ranging in size from 0.7 to 4.8% and totalling just over 12% of the original Fund, and the Line Fund opting for six bets ranging in size from 0.6 to 5.7% and totalling just under 17% of the original Fund.

In the weeks’ only piece of shenanigans, we could only get 5.7% of the Line Fund on the Dogs +12.5 @ $1.90 when we wanted 6%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Western Bulldogs carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by 13 points or more represents 10.1% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Richmond carry 8% risk, St Kilda 3.9%, Carlton 3.7%, Port Adelaide 1.5%, and Fremantle 1.1%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 15c, while a worst case set would snip almost 14c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.