2025 - Team Ratings After Round 6

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MoSSBODS made mostly single-spot re-rankings this week, although it did move over half the teams, the only multi-spot mover being Port Adelaide down 2 into 8th. MoSHBODS, while moving the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, moved four of them by multi-spots, including Western Bulldogs up 5 into 2nd, Brisbane Lions down 4 into 7th, Carlton up 4 into 5th, and Gold Coast down 2 into 8th.

The two Systems now have very different team rankings, although they do have Western Bulldogs and Collingwood in 1st and 2nd albeit in different orders.

Nonetheless, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.97 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.84 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Hawks, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Giants, and Blues.

MoSSBODS currently has 12 teams rated as above average on offence as does MoSHBODS (and the same teams). Both Systems have 10 teams rated as above average on defence, but MoSHBODS swaps in Gold Coast for Port Adelaide.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.3 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of 1.3 standard deviations. Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.0 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of about 1.3 standard deviations.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 10 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 2), only 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and none is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.85, which is up on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 6s.

There is still no team sitting above the median Combined Rating for teams that went on to make their Grand Final, but Collingwood seems to be making a push for that line.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked 11 teams this week, including moving Geelong into 1st, Collingwood into 2nd, and dropping Brisbane Lions down to 4th.

Further down, the big movers were the Dogs up 3 into 6th, the Swans down 3 into 8th, Carlton up 2 into 9th, and Gold Coast down 2 into 10th.

Just under 14 Rating Points still separates 1st from 12th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 11 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 6 last season, the gap between 1st and 12th was 23.6 Rating Points, or roughly 19 points. Geelong was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,020.8, St Kilda were 12th on 997.2, and North Melbourne were last on 957.5.

There are currently 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Gold Coast, Adelaide (MARS aside), and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs (MARS aside), Carlton, and Sydney

MoSSBODS this week again provides the most outlying rankings at 11, ahead of MoSHBODS with 6, and MARS with 5.

MoSSBODS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide, GWS, qnd Port Adelaide.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 8 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 6, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about only 4. MoSSBODS is quickly becoming a Rating System with reliably different opinions to MoSHBODS.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at six spots, and that there are eight other teams whose rankings span more than two spots. All but one of these nine teams (Carlton) have MoSSBODS defining one end of the range of rankings.

There are four teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, Melbourne, Richmond, and St Kilda.