The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a relatively small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3.5 points. Overall, the twins have the same average expected total, and that average is 3 points below the bookmakers’.

There is a lot of disagreement again this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams, with consensus only for Highest Scoring Team.

Highest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Bookmakers: Geelong v Essendon

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSSBODS: Carlton v Gold Coast
MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Hawthorn v Collingwood (equal with Richmond v St Kilda for Sportsbet)

Highest Scoring Team

All: Geelong

Lowest Scoring Team

MoS twins: Essendon
Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS found three wagers this week, two unders and an over at Manuka where, fortunately, rain is not forecast.

The overlays in the three games in play are for between 9 and 14 points, and the wagers between 3.1% and 6.4% accordingly.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Totals, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores, and MoSSBODS do the same for Game Margins and Away Team Scores.

The TAB still has the season-long lead on all four metrics, however.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 6 points ahead of Sportsbet, 156 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 323 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 19 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 23 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 127 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 41 points ahead of Sportsbet, 127 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 180 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 26 points ahead of Sportsbet, 26 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 85 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Across the season, the overall results by metric have been:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 8.5 round wins (including 1 tie), TAB 8.5 round wins (including 1 tie), MoSSBODS 5 round wins, MoSHBODS 3 round wins
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 9 round wins, TAB 5 round wins (including 2 ties), Sportsbet 4 round wins (including 2 ties), MoSSBODS 4 round wins
Away Team Scores: TAB 11.5 round wins (including 1 tie), MoSSBODS 6 round wins, MoSHBODS 3 round wins, Sportsbet 1.5 round wins (including 1 tie)
Game Totals: TAB 9 round wins (including 4 ties), MoSHBODS 7 round wins, MoSSBODS 4 round wins, Sportsbet 2 round wins (including/comprising 4 ties)

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were no bets last weekend, which left MoSSBODS with a 14 and 15 season-long record against the TAB, and a 6 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB in only 3 games last week, and on the right side of Sportsbet in just 4 games. MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 4 games and of Sportsbet in 5 games.

That takes MoSSBODS to 87 from 179 (49%) against the TAB and 89 from 179 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 101 from 179 (56%) against the TAB and Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.