2025 - Round 22 : No Respite

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It’s a sad looking nine games this week, with only one expected to finish with a single-digit margin, five expected to finish with a margin in the 20s, and the remaining three expected to finish with roughly 8, 10, and 11-goal margins.

Forecasting will be mostly about the margins then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has provided the round’s only contrarian head-to-head forecasts this week, and has done so in six of the nine games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in all but two games, but most notably 31 points in the Cats v Dons clash, 29 points in the Blues v Suns clash, 28 points in the Power v Dockers matchup, and 24 points in the Eagles v Crows matchup.

Bookie_3 is the extreme Predictor in six games this week, ENS_Linear in five, and MoSSBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range, most notably 25% points in the Blues v Suns game, and 24% points in the Power v Dockers game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in seven games this week, and Bookie_RE in five games.

WAGERS

There were more shenanigans this week, again entirely in the line market.

Carlton

  • Wanted: 6% +28.5 @ $1.88

  • Secured: 2.4% +28.5 @ $1.88 + 3.1% +27.5 @ $1.90

Port Adelaide

  • Wanted: 6.4% +24.5 @ $1.91

  • Secured: 2.4% +24.5 @ $1.91 + 3.9% +24.5 @ $1.90

North Melbourne

  • Wanted: 5.5% +46.5 @ $1.91

  • Secured: 2.4% +46.5 @ $1.91 + 3% +46.5 @ $1.90

In total, then, Investors have wagers in six line markets totalling just over 21% of the original Line Fund in sizes ranging from 0.6% on Richmond to 6.3% on Port Adelaide.

Those line bets are joined by a single head-to-head of 1.3% on Hawthorn.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Port Adelaide carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a 25-point and a 24-point loss represents 7.8% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Carlton carry 6.8% risk, North Melbourne 6.7%, Hawthorn 2.8%, Brisbane Lions 2.3%, and Richmond 0.8%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 13c, while a worst case set would snip just over 14c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.