The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a moderate 2 points per game, but there are four games where the difference equals or exceeds 3 points. Nonetheless, all four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores with MoSHBODS lowest and Sportsbet highest.

There is a lot of disagreement again this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

Highest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Western Bulldogs v GWS
Bookmakers: Geelongv Port Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Game

MoS twins and Sportsbet: Fremantle v Carlton
TAB: Sydney v Essendon

Highest Scoring Team

MoSSBODS: Melbourne
MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Geelong

Lowest Scoring Team

MoS twins: Richmond
Bookmakers: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSSBODS found one possible wager this week, an overs on the Swans v Dons game that has been vetoed by the rain rule. It’s interesting to note that the TAB has the line at 151.5 for this game while Sportsbet has it at 160.5, which suggests to me that they’re operating from different assumptions about the weather.

From a wagering point of view, if the TAB is correct and there will be rain, then we have correctly vetoed the wager, but if, instead, Sportsbet is correct and there will be no rain, then our estimated overlay is only 0.1 points, which would also mean no bet.

Until next week then …

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins.

The TAB still has the season-long lead on all four metrics, however.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 164 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 337 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 15 points ahead of Sportsbet, 25 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 131 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 43 points ahead of Sportsbet, 111 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 182 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 16 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 71 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Since Game Totals is really the key metric here when we’re talking Totals wagering, it’s hard to be too disappointed about the performance of either MoS model.

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was one bet last weekend, an unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB, which left MoSSBODS with a 14 and 15 season-long record against the TAB, and a 6 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB in only 3 games last week, and on the right side of Sportsbet in 4 games. MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 4 games and of Sportsbet in 5 games.

That takes MoSSBODS to 84 from 170 (49%) against the TAB and 85 from 170 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 97 from 170 (57%) against the TAB, and 96 from 170 (57%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.