2025 - Round 21 : It's Complicated ...

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We’ve nine home team favourites this week with their expected victory margins ranging from 8 to 50 points. Three home teams are expected to win by 8 to 13 points, two more by between 22 and 29 points, and the remaining four by between 39 and 50 points.

With Home Sweet Home out of the contrarian market, who will step up?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Consult the Ladder has provided the round’s only contrarian head-to-head forecast this week, with MoSHPlay_Marg a possible contributor in only the Pies v Lions game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in all but one game, but most notably 26 points in the Swans v Dons clash, 20 points in the Suns v Tigers, and Dogs v Giants clashes, and 19 points in the Dockers v Blues matchups. I can’t recall another round with as much variability in the margin forecasts.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictors in five games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range, most notably 20% points in the Dogs v Giants game, and 15% points in the Dockers v Blues game.

Bookie_OE is the extreme Predictor in seven games this week, MoSSBODS_Prob in five, and Bookie_LPSO in four games.

WAGERS

It was virtually wall-to-wall shenanigans this week, entirely in the line market. The detail is in the table at right.

Note that we also wagered on Melbourne at $1.90 -39.5 for the full 1.9% we were after.

In total, then, Investors have wagers in six line markets totalling a startling 22.5% of the original Line Fund in sizes ranging from 1.4% on Geelong to 7.2% on Essendon.

Those line bets are joined by five head-to-head bets in sizes ranging from 0.6% to 7.1% and totalling an only slightly less startling 20% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

It seems a bit late and precipitous for MoSHBODS to be making a bold statement, but the MoS models are staunch defenders of free speech and the right to offend.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Essendon carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a loss by 48 points and a loss by 51 points represents 9% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Western Bulldogs carry 8.9% risk, Adelaide carry 7.1%, Collingwood 5.4%, Carlton 3%, Melbourne 2.5%, and Geelong 1.7%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 18c, while a worst case set would snip just under 20c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.